The fact that this total has moved past the kay number of 35 provides value on the Under in an ugly matchup that appears destined for a score in the 16-13 range.

The Dolphins are the worst team in the league without Tua at QB, and even the talent-light Patriots are good enough to take advantage and get another elusive win.

Tyler Huntley should be better in his second start, after another week of practice with his new team. Miami is getting back left tackle Terron Armstead, running back Raheem Mostert, corner Kendall Fuller and linebacker David Long. The Pats' offensive line is decimated and is allowing a ridiculous 47.4 percent pressure rate.

This is a battle of two 1-3 teams with Miami being 0-4 against the spread. Miami hasn't covered the spread in their last seven games and their quarterback will be hard-pressed not to make it eight straight. The Patriots have played three games on the road winning one but their home game against Seattle was rather close a 3 point loss. The Dolphins have won six of the last seven against the Patriots but I don't see it here. I'm not confident in Tyler Huntley at quarterback nor do I like Skyler Thompson or Tim Boyle. Miami's in for a long season. Patriots cover.

Both teams are dealing with brutal injuries as David Andrews and Jaelan Phillips are done for the year, and with potential QB and O-line limitations on both sides, we're seeing a miniscule total. While playing an Under when the number is less than 37 is hard to manage, I do like attack either team under here, and I'm going with the Dolphins after the offense has shown nothing without Tua Tagovailoa. The Patriots at least looked competent the first two weeks before a pair of tough road matchups, so it's possible they pull together 20 points in this game, while I can't see it from Miami.

This is the lowest total of the season. When the total is set at 40, the under is 7-3 on the year. There have also been two games this season when the total has been less than 37, going under by an average of 11.8 points. Each team has allowed 25 points, or more, to their opponents over their last three games, however, neither offense can be trusted to consistently put up points and score touchdowns in the redzone.

It’s a low number, but these offenses are totally broken. And the Dolphins owe me an under after that debacle Monday night. Mike McDaniel’s offense is a joke right now, and Snoop Huntley is pretty clueless at QB. All the Fish can do is try run the ball. But outside zone hasn’t worked vs Pats for years, and Miami averages just 3.5 yards/carry in last 4 meetings. Pats home games 11-7 to the under since 2022. They closed at 41 and totaled 35.5 points. That -5.33 close margin is second largest in NFL. This series is 6-4 to the under, with an average score of 41. When you factor in how anemic these offenses are now, this total still feels low to me.