There has been no more disappointing ATS team this season than the Texans, which are 0-4 and frequently underwhelming despite being 3-1 where it matters most, their win-loss record. This is another spot this week where I’m leaning against expectation as the Bills should be favored to bounce back from the Ravens loss against an opponent that has underwhelmed this season. However, Buffalo will be without leading-target getter Khalil Shakir, and its defense is thinning both up front and in the secondary. Houston and C.J. Stroud (better at home) have the receiving talent to take advantage, and Stefon Diggs will obviously be hungry against his old team. If the Texans can simply cut down on dumb penalties, this game sets up quite well for them.

Houston's Stefon Diggs hasn't found the end zone since the opener but you know the Texans will do whatever they can to get him a score against his former Bills teammates.

Houston has the dubious distinction of failing to cover each of its first 4 games. What does this mean? Typically that a team becomes undervalued and this is what we have today against a Bills team dealing with a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball. The way to attack Houston is through the air; a job that gets more difficult without Khalil Shakir. Meanwhile, the middle of the Bills defense is a big concern against the healthy Texans passing attack loaded with weapons. Look for Bobby Slowik to break tendency a bit today using the pass to set up the run over the middle of the field en route to a big Texans win.

In three of the four games, Cook has had far less carries than projected…2 blowouts for Buffalo and one where they were game wrecked. I like cook over 14.5 carries, as he has essentially exceeded either or both of his props in every game with Brady as OC except for crazy blowout scenarios. If this goes to 13.5 then I love it. Take the plus money

In three of the four games, Cook has had far less carries than projected…2 blowouts for Buffalo and one where they were game wrecked. I also like Cook over 14.5 carries, but the yards seem even more attractive. He has essentially exceeded either or both of these props in every game with Brady as OC except for crazy blowout scenarios.

The Bills saw their 3-0 start come to a halt against the surging Ravens last week, and this matchup aligns as a poor bounce-back spot. They will be missing top WR Khalil Shakir and are still banged up on defense. The Texans have survived two somewhat sloppy home performances thus far but have a chance for a signature win in Week 5.

I see this game finishing with a point total north of 50. Both teams have mostly looked good on the defensive side of the ball, but there has been lapses for both at times in 2024. The Bills will be without Khalil Shakir, but they should still be able to move the ball and score here. The Texans are better than what they've shown on offense, and I expect they score plenty on Sunday as well. A final score in the 27-24 range (which I see happening) goes comfortably over.

This line has jumped through the zero, which isn't a key number since ties are rare, after the Bills injury report included Ed Oliver and Khalil Shakir being ruled out. I had already been leaning Houston, which hasn't looked as good as a 3-1 record indicates but is at home in what is a relatively even matchup in power ratings, and I'm going to go ahead and lock it in now. Von Miller is also suspended, and even with Houston's injuries at RB they can have success running the ball in this matchup, while it'll be tougher for Josh Allen in the passing game without Shakir. This line should be closer to 3.

QB Josh Allen's road excellence will be put to the test. He is 13-7-1 ATS as an underdog away from home, but he must decipher a defense that has yielded the lowest completion percentage and fourth fewest yards in the league. He will not have WR Khalil Shakir to collaborate with. Three contributors have been shelved with injuries on defense, whose until allows the most ground yards per carry NFL-wide, and LB Von Miller begins a suspension. As the Texans deal with the absence of RB Joe Mixon, it can count on an extremely motivated Stefon Diggs. The WR departed Buffalo on less-than-cordial terms.

Expect the Texans to take advantage of a banged up Bills defense, forcing the Bills offense to match scores. If the Texans can stop the run consistently, they'll win by double-digits. This is a bad matchup for Buffalo to be completely honest.

The Texans cant run the ball and their run blocking looks suspect and they are running out of running backs. Stroud is their path to victory and young OC Bobby Slowik is starting to air it out more and they can find things underneath vs an inevitable two deep D. Stroud averages over 300/game at home, they fully embraced going with more pace and attacking with volume in pass game last week and I don't think they will have much of a choice here, either, even against a solid D. Bills safeties may be vulnerable.

Somehow Cook only touched the ball 10 times Sunday, probably because the game quickly got away from the Bills. That rarely happens and won't here. Bills short on WRs and running ball is their specialty and HOU is 23rd in rush D EPA this season. Cook can break some long ones and this is a big rebound spot for a stout BUF OL. All the recent Bills blowouts have taken away from the normal volume for Cook but this game should be closer, they will want to stay balanced and get back to feeding their feature back.

Both teams didn't look at their best last week but Houston pulled out a close win for the third time this year. Their RB injuries leave them unable to capitalize on Buffalo's defensive weakness the way Baltimore did, and the Bills may have Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson back for this game. Both teams have quality left tackles who didn't practice Wednesday, and either missing Sunday brings down the offensive ceiling of this matchup. With two defensive minded head coaches in a potential playoff preview, we could see conservative decisions that also help the Under come in.

James Cook is dominating backfield touches for Buffalo despite averaging just 12.5 rushing attempts through the first quarter of the season. We’ve yet to see Buffalo play much in a game script, the closest example we had was Week 1 vs Arizona where Cook finished with 19 rushing attempts and 22 touches he turned into 104 scrimmage yards. The Texans provide a strong matchup as their run defense has cratered and rank in the bottom 10 in most/all efficiency metrics, including ranking 30th in Run Stop Win Rate. This projects to be a competitive game and I expected Cook to continue to dominate backfield touches in a game Buffalo may be apt to lean on the run.

Until the move the line….ill keep playing and winning