The Ravens, rightly preseason favorites to win the AFC North, are staring a potential 0-3 start in the face; you probably know by now the extremely low percentage of teams that have made the playoffs with such a record. The Cowboys, a top-two NFC East team, got routed by the Saints after seeming like they would remain explosive offensively. What Baltimore has Sunday is a huge EPA edge and a run game behind Derrick Henry that should face little resistance. Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb remains incredible, but the Ravens do have a secondary that can match up. There are also rumors that Micah Parsons may spy Lamar Jackson, which would lessen pass rush concerns. I'm comfortable at -1.5, but there's more value straight up.

Ferguson was only under this number one time at home all of last year. I expect him to catch catch five so nice value on the over.

The Ravens third down back still sees a lot of the field with Derrick Henry not quite a perfect fit in this offense so far and I expect him to get a nice workshare here. Hill is over this in 6 of the last 6 road games dating back to last season, when the Ravens OL issues are more acute. He caught 6 balls in Week 1 at KC; screens vs Micah Parsons pass rush make a lot of sense. Jerome Ford had 6 receptions vs DAL Week 1 and Alvin Kamara has 2 catches and 3 TAR on a day the Saints only attempted 16 passes. Ravens have been decided short-passing game thus far with broken OL play. Must hit layups in must-win game.

Numerous advance scouts who know these teams think a smart approach is go heavy with Derrick Henry right at Micah Parsons and run away from him with Lamar Jackson and Hill on sprint plays and option ball. In Ravens previous road game Hill got 8 targets; they may go 2-min even in non-2-min situations to create tempo and press the defense. Hill is by far best pass protecting back on the team and Ravens flopping their crap OL again and facing another elite pass rusher; that will keep the back on the field as well. Jackson has finally embraced checkdowns and horizontal passing game and Derrick Henry gets few targets and the passes to him have failed.

Last week Tolbert had a 91% route rate, a 22% target share, a 12.9 ADOT and a 67% catch rate as the Cowboys chased points against the Saints. The kid lined up in the slot a bunch and showed good speed and quickness to get open. He also made good adjustments to a number of underthrown balls from Dak Prescott, creating more value both for himself and the team. I'm banking on the Cowboys using more three-WR sets to get Tolbert's speed and agility on the field. And for what it's worth, WRs who line up in the slot against Baltimore have averaged 11.6 yards per catch, and it includes a fourth-highest 8.1 yards after catch per reception allowed.

I rarely post picks on non-primetime game sides but this one is compelling to me. The Ravens are simply too good to start 0-3 with reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and his new backfield mate, Derrick Henry. Dallas' defense looked so dreadful last week against New Orleans that Baltimore should be able to exploit those weaknesses. Baltimore 27, Dallas 24.

Lamar Jackson is 20-1 SU versus NFC teams, and I like him and the Ravens to extend that streak Sunday. Jackson and Derrick Henry should both have big games on the ground. The Cowboys rank dead last in rush EPA; their edge rushers are terrific but the middle of their defense is vulnerable. Alvin Kamara just ripped Dallas for 115 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Look for the desperate Ravens to avoid an 0-3 start behind Jackson.

Loved it last week and like it even more here. He is over 36 attempts on avg at home since start of 2023 and with a suspect defense and no longer playing with huge leads, he is chucking it more than that. Oh, and Ravens are dominant against the run and Dallas can't move the ball a lick on the ground but the Ravens secondary looks suspect with top secondary coaches leaving in offseason. I expect a close game and pretty high scoring, and Dak will be throwing it all over the place. This will be a track meet on fast track.

Baltimore's defense clearly misses former DC Mike Macdonald as that unit has allowed at least 26 points in both games so far. Against the Chiefs you understand that, but not at home against Gardner Minshew and the Raiders. Thus, I fully expect the Cowboys to get to at least 24 in a possible Super Bowl preview (unless the Ravens fell to 0-3 that is). A few other books have this set at 24.5. Our model has Dallas with 28 points.

Hard to see John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson starting 0-3, even with their OL issues. DAL cant stop the run and can't run the ball and their long home winning streak is finally snapped. They've allowed 40+ in 2 straight at home (including playoffs). BAL has a +222 yard differential and could be 2-0. LJ will run wild and do whatever it takes to win. LJ 18-1 ATS vs NFC (8 in a row). DAL 1-7 last 8 as a dog. BAL has better coach and better defense.

The Ravens need Lamar to be Superman if they dont want to be 0-3. His legs were their greatest asset against the Chiefs and they tried like hell to establish Derrick Henry last week and that was suspect. Henry needs to be under center, not a great fit here, and their offense is most-heavy gun in the NFL. Look for Lamar taking off on scripted and unscripted runs in this one taking matters into his own hands. Had 45 last week despite only 5 carries. I could see 15-plus carries for over 100 yards in a desperate game for BAL. He can't trust his OL and knows he needs to run. Did it 16 times for 122 yards in the last road game.