This Vikings team is going to be far more formidable than most probably expected this season, but even at home, the situational spot is tough against a 49ers team that rolled even without Christian McCaffrey and enters on a short week. This is still, ultimately, Sam Darnold against the San Francisco defense. Minnesota did win this meeting last season; that game was dominated by Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Kirk Cousins -- the former two inactive and the latter now in Atlanta -- and without Deebo Samuel for the 49ers. I’d rather be on San Francisco than not playing this game, even if I wish there was no hook (you can find -4).

The 49ers laid in egg in almost this exact same spot in 2023, losing to the Vikings 22-17 in Minnesota in Week 7. I just don't see that happening today. Even without Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers were simply dominant in their Week 1 win over the Jets. This team looks motivated and out for blood in 2024. The Vikings (and Justin Jefferson) count for something, but I like San Francisco by a touchdown here.

Deebo Samuel was targeted nine times in Week 1 and I see a similar workload Sunday at Minnesota. Samuel usually gets fed targets whenever San Fran faces two-high safety looks, an alignment Brian Flores prefers. With Christian McCaffrey out and Brandon Aiyuk apparently working off the rust of his August holdout, Samuel should put his imprint on this one. He missed last year's visit to Minnesota.

Kittle has typically not performed well v Minnesota and the Vikes are top third v the TE. Expect cMC back and expect Kittle under 5 rec

Since San Francisco's bye week last year, Purdy has been over this number in 9 of his last 12 games, and would've done so again on Monday night if the Jets had made it a game in the fourth quarter. Last year, San Francisco's QB was first in passing yards per attempt against the blitz. Minnesota sends blitzes at one of the highest rates in the league. I expect him to have a field day with his stable of receivers against an average Minnesota unit who will be blitzing like crazy.