The Buccaneers look quite formidable offensively with Baker Mayfield flashing late in the 2023 season. The Commanders will be breaking in a rookie quarterback on the road against a Todd Bowles defense. That’s a tall task in Week 10 let alone Week 1. Feel like Washington has been getting a bit too much love going into the regular season, and while Daniels is going to be electric with some big-time highlights throughout this campaign, I’d rather fade him in his first-ever NFL game.

The Washington Commanders are another team that have a new Coach in Dan Quinn and a new OC with Kliff Kingsbury. They got their rookie quarterback with Jayden Daniels who is going to bring a versatile element that’s unexpected week one. Expect the Commanders to be ready on both sides of the football from a prep stand point. Take the Commanders.

Washington has the benefit of uncertainty here, but winning on the road in the NFL is extremely difficult. Tampa Bay returns most of last year's NFC South championship team, and in the end, I believe their vast experience will win out. Bucs by a TD here.

Everyone else is hanging this at 11.5 let’s grab the last 10.5. I think Wash will run more than advertised, Especially with a rookie quarterback on the road in his first start. Enter the Rob

The Buccaneers are a team I will be betting against often this season. The Bucs ranked as the NFL's "luckiest" team last year, leading the league in offensive fumbles recovered, and other fortunate categories of the sort. That is sure to regress, along with the play of Baker Mayfield. Now without QB guru coach Dave Canales, Mayfield will have to navigate this offense while dealing with a very weak O-line. Although rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in Week 1, Jayden Daniels' rushing upside can carry him to success against Todd Bowles' blitz-heavy defense. When playing as the favorite, Baker Mayfield is 14-26-1 ATS. The Commanders can cover and potentially win this game.

Rain could be in the cards for this one, but I'm still going to back the Over here. The Bucs may have the worst pass rush in the league, and Jayden Daniels' ability to attack the edges should counter their strength on the interior of the line. On the other side, the Commanders defense was a turnstile last year and I don't see where it got much better. I wouldn't be surprised if we're getting close to this number by halftime in what could be a back-and-forth game not represented by the market total.

Robinson quietly had an effective season last year and even showed off some big play ability which was has often been a knock on him. Kliff Kingbury is set call offensive play calls for the Commanders and Kingsbury has designed some efficient running games, while routinely ranking top five in seconds per play. I also believe that playing alongside an explosive duel threat QB like Jayden Daniels will open up additional running lanes for Robinson. The Commanders have a shaky offensive line and I suspect we’ll see a run heavy game plan in week 1 to protect their rookie franchise QB.

There's plenty of excitement behind rookie QB Jayden Daniels and the needed coaching overhaul in Washington. But the Commanders will likely field one of the NFL's worst defensive units, and this spread seems a bot on the light side against a Bucs club looking to build on last year's impressive late run to playoffs.

A rookie quarterback's best friend is the ground game. So I expect Brian Robinson to get a lot of carries as Jayden Daniels makes his debut. Austin Ekeler will be used primarily as a receiving back, leaving Robinson to carry the load. He wasn't as bad as his 4.1 yards per carry mark last season indicates. Look for Robinson to clear this number against a so-so Bucs rush defense.

Rachaad White Over 82.5 Scrimmage Yards -115: A true workhorse back, I don’t see anything hanging with that role with defensive-minded Todd Bowles in charge. New offensive coordinator won’t change much; White had 22+ touches in 7 of the last 9 games and went over 93 scrimmage yards in 9 of the last 12 games; averaging 100+ in that span. Commanders defense is totally broken and Dan Quinn ain’t fixing it overnight.

Our model has the Bucs winning by 10. I would play -3, but I don't think it will get there on its own so moneyline it is. I expect Jayden Daniels to be very good eventually and Washington still has two excellent defensive tackles in Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, but other than that not much on this rebuilding team in my opinion. Why give up on WR Jahan Dotson, the No. 16 overall pick in 2022, already? The Commanders will have new systems on offense and defense. Guess that means the Bucs might not know what to expect, but Tampa Bay should win at home -- especially in the heat and humidity that the Bucs players are more than used to down here.

As with many high-profile rookie QBs, Jayden Daniels might be da bomb someday. Still, NFL debuts for such players are often rocky, especially on the road. What's more, the Commanders unveil a new coach, though Dan Quinn has sat in the chair before. Tampa Bay is more settled, having finished on a 6-2 straight-up streak highlighted by a pounding of the Eagles in wild-card week. The Bucs went toe-to-toe with Detroit in the next round before bowing. QB Baker Mayfield has found a second wind under the Florida sun, thanks partly to the terrific WR tandem of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Daniels should be so lucky.