Took first half under and now that it’s climbing let’s go full game under as well. Both onlines are ravaged by injury, including both OT OUT for Cleveland.

The Cowboys are Starting a rookie left tackle and will need to both a) check down and b) have a second option after CLamb. Enter Fergie and 40 yards

The Browns and Boys are both very beat up on the o lines (yes already) and the Browns D will be stout at home. Slow starts here. Under

15-20 MPH winds are expected during game time in Cleveland today. These are already two top-tier defenses. The addition of wind gusts to potentially impact the deep passing game and special teams makes this Under an auto-bet for me. The Browns were the #1 ranked defense in EPA per play last season, and make it very difficult for offenses to be efficient. Dallas' once-menacing offensive line may take a step back this year, and they will have their hands full with game-wrecker Myles Garrett right away. Browns QB Deshaun Watson struggled last season as well, namely against defenses that bring consistent pressure. Micah Parsons and company should have Watson uncomfortable in the pocket. Defense and wind see this one go Under 41.5.

Jake Ferguson appears to be the second option in the Cowboys high volume passing attack. Ferguson became a full time player last season and became one of Dak Prescott’s most trusted targets. This appears to be a difficult matchup, however I believe Ferguson will be heavily utilized as the Browns possess an elite pass rush led by Myles Garrett and are likely to force the ball out of Dak’s hands quickly, resulting in potentially extra targets for Ferguson who operates close to the line of scrimmage.

This feels like a sleepy spot for an erratic Cowboys team that is banged up on the defensive side of the ball and has only had prized WR CeeDee Lamb in the mix for about a week. This should be a much more important game to the Browns, who can't afford to give up any ground in the rugged AFC North.

This line has swung massively from where it was when it opened in May, but I'm not sure it's moved enough. The Cowboys are breaking in two rookie offensive lineman, and this is a brutal matchup for their debut facing the elite Browns front and Jim Schwartz's scheme. If the Browns can limit CeeDee Lamb, I'm not sure how Dallas scores points, while I think Deshaun Watson can have some success against the Cowboys considering his level of play last year while dealing with injury was better than I saw upon his 2022 return. I think this line should be at least a full field goal, and even there I'm probably leaning Cleveland at home.

Myles Garrett is the reigning 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year despite recording just one sack in his last seven games. Garrett has recorded at least one sack in every Week 1 game of his career, except for the 2020 Covid year. He will face Tyler Guyton, a rookie left tackle for the Cowboys. Dallas won't be able to run much, so expect a lot of passes from Dak Prescott, which gives Garrett more reps.

I bet the Browns +1.5 when this line opened months ago; now that it has swung a full four points, I prefer the moneyline. The Cowboys are starting two rookies on the offensive line, left tackle Tyler Guyton and center Cooper Beebe. Guyton's first NFL test: trying to block Myles Garrett. Cleveland led the NFL in total defense last year and should be even better in the second year under aggressive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Back the Browns, who went 8-1 at home last season, to win a low-scoring opener.

The Cowboys had quite the offseason. Jerry Jones managed to alienate two star players, lose quality depth on defense and he is a huge believer in the "running backs don't matter" narrative. One thing not being discussed: Dallas is expected to start the season with two rookies playing on the offensive line (Tyler Guyton, Cooper Beebe). That's not ideal when facing Myles Garrett and arguably the best defensive front in the NFL. I expect Dak Prescott and Co. to have trouble moving the ball all day long. Browns are 8-1 both SU and ATS in their last nine home games. With starting CB DaRon Bland also out for Dallas Week 1, I like that trend to continue.