Take the over here. Carolina banged up 8n an already porous secondary. He should thrive.

Unders went 12-5 last year in Panthers games despite some totals landing in the 30s. Thisone is relatively high because Carolina's awful offense can only improve under a new coach and with new linemen. Still, it's a work in progress, and no leap forward is likely against an above-average defense. New Orleans did little offseason tinkering with its middling offense. Carolina's totals should stay in the 30s until proven otherwise.

I already made the case for the Panthers +3.5, and I absolutely think they are live to win this game. When playing as a favorite of more than a field goal, Saints QB Derek Carr is a horrid 11-26-2 ATS. I see this game being decided by a field goal, and at +170 I feel there is value on Panthers ML. 1u on the spread, .5u on the moneyline.

The Panthers signing of head coach Dave Canales should improve this team immediately. He is a QB guru, and with the addition of star OL Robert Hunt to protect Bryce Young, I see a much better sophomore season in store. Saints head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr have done poorly when playing as favorites (8-16 ATS for Allen, 21-37-2 ATS for Carr). This Saints offensive line has issues with Ryan Ramczyk injured, and I see no reason New Orleans should be laying more than a FG here. Panthers ML +175 will be a play for me as well.

Jonathan Mingo was a key part of Carolina's passing game last year and topped this number in 10 of his 15 appearances, but he didn't get much over in four of those games (finishing at 20-22 yards). But he played at least 86% of the offensive snaps in all but one game, and now he's been bumped to WR4 at best with the team's additions at receiver. Throw in passes to the running backs and tight ends and I can't see Mingo getting more than two targets, which makes topping this number a longshot for me.

Carolina wasn't very competitive on the road last year, including a 28-6 defeat in the Big Easy. Eight of the Saints' 34 sacks in 2023 came against Carolina, accounting for 23.5% of their season total. The Panthers' top two tight ends will miss this one.

Carolina is going to be much better offensively under Dave Canales, who resurrected the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Bryce Young will be more efficient, plus he's going to gain some key first downs with his legs. The Saints, with their horrible offensive line, should not be laying more than a field goal. Dennis Allen is a conservative coach whose teams typically struggle to cover as favorites (8-16 ATS).

Will Derek Carr make it the whole season as New Orleans' starter? If I were to guess now, I'd say that rookie Spencer Rattler sees some time this season. But for now, against a rebuilding Carolina defense, I like the spot for Carr. New OC Klint Kubiak should help find new ways to get his WRs involved as compared to last year's stale gameplans. I think Carr tops 240 yards so I like the value here.

The New Orleans Saints have the 32nd-ranked offensive line, according to PFF. The Carolina Panthers have bolstered their lineup with astute draft selections and crucial off-season acquisitions. They get a boost from a sharper coaching staff and will play with double revenge from last year. Carolina is the much healthier team with a SIC (Sports Injury Central) score of 85.3 compared to 78.3 for the Saints. Dennis Allen's career winning percentage as a head coach (including his time with the Raiders) is .343, which ranks 171st out of 176 head coaches who have worked 59 or more games in NFL history. Dennis Allen has an ATS record of 24-40-2 over his coaching career spanning 66 games. I like the Panthers in this spot.

Not much to buy about either of these offenses or QBs, and these teams brough out the worst in one another offensively a year ago. A bad head coach vs a rookie head coach who will probably be bad (David Tepper picked him, after all). Bryce Young has 290 yards passing and 1 TD in 2 games vs Saints as a rookie. Derek Carr went 39/62 for 347 yards 2-2 in 2 games vs Panthers. Those games produced 37 and 34 points. CAR was 12-5 to the under and NO 11-6. Both were in bottom 10 in avg game score. NO 22-12 under last 2 years and CAR 21-13. I don’t see any reason why those trends change here. Don't see explosive plays. More FGs.

I seriously might send an Omaha Steaks gift package to former Panthers GM Scott Fitterer as he basically turned the Bears into a potential Super Bowl team with that Bryce Young trade. I've not embraced a man since my dad passed but would gladly bear hug (pun intended) Scott should I ever see him. Will the Cats be better offensively in 2024? They can't possibly be worse, but they also scored fewer than 18 points in 12 of 17 games in 2023 -- six in their visit to the always mega-loud Superdome. And now Young has to learn a new offense under new head coach Dave Canales, a guy the Saints are more than familiar with as he was formerly Tampa Bay's OC.

New coach Dave Canales, known for his offensive ingenuity, should provide a boost to the downtrodden franchise. Even so, he doesn't have a lot to work with and there's the real possibility that prized top overall draft pick Bryce Young is just a bust in waiting. The vanilla-flavored Saints didn't do a lot to improve themselves, but they should still have their way against a Carolina club that might again be the worst in the NFL.