The Titans have played well enough defensively this season to make this a question, but ultimately, the Texans are not just getting C.J. Stroud back but attempting to rebound after a couple immensely difficult losses bookending their last win over the Titans. Tennessee won the prior meeting with Case Keenum in OT. Now, they have Stroud and home-field advantage against a team that does not throw well, even with Will Levis back for Tennessee. I like this return to relevance for a Houston team on the bubble of the playoffs with potential to jump in the field Sunday.

The Texans have a great matchup for their passing game here, and that should mean big things for No. 1 receiver Nico Collins, who had three straight games with at least seven catches before suffering an injury early in Week 14. He returned last week and caught four passes from backup QBs in a tough matchup against the Browns despite only playing 47% of the snaps, well below his normal workload. That usage should be back to 75%+ this week, and with C.J. Stroud back under center and no Tank Dell, Collins should fly over this total.

This looks like a potential spike week for Nico Collins who will have CJ Stroud back in the lineup and gets to face a TEN pass defense that has really struggled covering boundary WRs. TEN pass defense ranks dead last in efficiency against first reads whcih bodes really well for Collins here who is clearly functioning as the Texans WR1 with Tank Dell on the shelf. Look for Collins and CJ Stroud to be busy on Sunday.

Nico Collins (calf) practiced fully Friday and does not have a game designation. His starting QB is back, and he has a dream matchup against the Titans' secondary. Collins missed the first meeting with Tennessee but should capitalize Sunday in a must-win game.

Tennessee has allowed opposing kickers to make at least two successful field goals in 13 of 15 games. Fairbairn has kicked multiple three-pointers in 7 of 10 games. Even though the juice is significant, it's worth the squeeze in this case.

Houston's offense has hit a rough patch in recent weeks, first with C.J. Stroud struggling to find any success on the road against the Jets then missing the next two weeks due to a concussion. It appears he's trending toward returning this week, so I'm hopping on this line now hoping to beat a potential move. I'd make this line Texans -6 if I knew Stroud was back, and I expect their offense to light up Tennessee at home this time around with a great QB under center. The Titans have blown two straight games in the late stages, and they might not have anything left in the tank here.