There were some fluky elements to Tennessee's loss at Indy in tehri first matchup. This is a somewhat lost season for the Titans but, with a relatively manageable schedule the rest of the way, fighting for a wild-card berth isn't out of the equation. Look for the topsy-turvy Colts to see their win streak end at three games.

Indianapolis has been playing really good team defense all season long. I really like how they're able to not only get to the QB, but also turn the ball over. Their run defense is pretty stout, which will be vital in this game vs Derrick Henry. Expect them to frustrate the rookie Levis and pull off the season sweep of the Titans.

After breaking in like gangbusters on Oct. 29 vs the Falcons when tossing 4 TD passes, the Titans' Kentucky rookie QB Will Levis has passed for TDs (2 of 'em) in just one of the next four starts. And worth noting that the Titans' successes lately have come only against struggling sorts like the Falcons and, last week, the 1-10 panthers. Meanwhile the Colts are weaving their way thru traffic and various injuries to sit at 6-5 after three straight wins as Gardner Minshew is rewarding Indy's faith in him as a top-line backup. The Colts' defense has also made game-altering plays in recent wins vs. the Panthers and Patriots as Minshew has proven he can outscore subpar opposition. Play Colts

Running backs are finding success against this Colts defense. The last 5 Colts opponents have had 125, 167, 138, 161, and 150 rushing yards. It's worth noting two of these teams were the Patriots and Panthers. Henry broke out of his 2 week lull with a solid 76 yd, 2 TD effort last week and has hit the over in 4 of his last 6 games.

He's been under this total considerably in his past two games with two very different gamescripts, I expect Derrick Henry to get rolling in this one, which if it happens then Levis, by nature, won't have to throw too much. I think Mike Vrabel would like that. And on the other side, Indy is already one of the league's top teams in rush attempts per game, so the game could be shortened by both squads running the ball. Three of the last four quarterbacks to play the Colts have gone under this number including Baker Mayfield last week, and Levis has exceeded 32 pass attempts just twice through five starts.

Henry tends to play well whenever the Titans are in a competitive game (not a blowout). For example, Henry has 63 or more yards in four of his past six games, each of which the Titans either won or lost by one score. Indy's has just two blowout wins. Moreover, this will be Indy's last game without suspended D-tackle Grover Stewart -- with him they allowed 3.6 yards per rush to RBs and were top-10 in yardage before- and after-contact metrics. In five games without him they've allowed 4.6 yards per rush and have been bottom-11 in yards before & after contact, and that includes games against the Panthers, Browns, Patriots. Not exactly the best running teams, and each of them averaged 4.2 yards.

The Titans are 4-0 in true home games (lost 24-16 overseas to the Ravens in what was technically a Tennessee home game). This game sets up well for Derrick Henry, facing a Colts team that ranks 31st in rushing success rate allowed. On the other side, defensive tackle Teair Tart -- who makes all the difference for Tennessee's rushing defense -- missed the Colts' 23-16 win over Tennessee in Indy. The Colts ran for 193 yards and 5.7 per carry in that game. Tart is back, and the Titans are down to 3.8 yards per carry allowed this season. The return of wideout Treylon Burks should help Titans rookie QB Will Levis attack a vulnerable Colts' secondary.

The Colts already beat the Titans at home on Oct 8th and are 4-1 on the road this season. I'll take Indy to beat the Titans again and cover the short number in Nashville.

Pittman Jr. has a 28.5% target share with Gardner Minshew as his QB and has 12 or more targets in four of his last six games. He's gone over the 80 yard mark four times in those six games, including twice over 100 yards. Against a Titans secondary who has been burned lately by notable WRs (Diontae Johnson, Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley), I'm expecting another 80+ yard effort from the Colts top pass catcher.

In 9 of the 11 Tennessee games this season, an opposing kicker has booted at least two successful field goals. Gay was one of the opponents who found success, kicking three FGs against the Titans in Week 5. The Indianapolis kicker is over this prop in 5 of his last 7 games and I expect another successful day from him in Week 13.

Tennessee is 4-7 and largely an afterthought in a crowded AFC playoff hunt, especially with the other three teams in the AFC South sitting above .500. But quietly -- very quietly even -- the Titans are undefeated at home this year, beating the Chargers, Bengals, Falcons and Panthers in Nashville for their quartet of wins this season. They've got three other one-score losses this year; Tennessee's not that far from being in the mix for the postseason. That's how Mike Vrabel rolls, even with a rookie quarterback under center and a weakened roster. Derrick Henry absolutely destroys division opponents, especially late in the year, and a home game against a turnover-prone QB feels like a spot where he could score multiple times again.

With Jonathan Taylor out I wondered where this would land. I thought Moss would have a nice role and project to 60+ rushing yards even with Taylor. Now that he's the main thing, sign me up. Moss has 23 runs for 161 yards in the first meeting (Richardson got hurt in-game). Colts gashed TEN in RPO game for 112 yards and Moss went 11-60-1 on RPOs alone in that game. IND had highest use of RPOs all season last week and Moss averaged about 7 yds/carry. I don't see how he doesn't feature here and I see explosive runs out in space for him. With Minshew turning the ball over Colts will lean into a physical approach here, playing to strength of their emerging defense.

Volume for Michael Pittman is a bankable commodity these days. One of the more sound investments in the NFL. He has had eight targets or more in five of the last six games. He has 25 targets in the last two games and 46 over the last four. He and Gardner Minshew are a strong combination and his catch radius is a big asset. He has catches or more in four straight games and five of six and caught 5 balls in the first meeting with Tennessee but I figure for even more action here (Richardson started that game), with RPOs becoming an even bigger point of emphasis for this team now (26 plays for 233 vs TB last week). Tough matchup for TEN.

Since his promotion to first string, rookie QB Will Levis is 2-0 straight-up at home, 0-3 away. The Titans figure to even his record Sunday, especially with a major injury impeding the visitors. RB Jonathan Taylor appears out of action. Zack Moss was a capable fill-in during Taylor's early-season holdout but is hardly his equal. Taylor had brought balance to an offense overly reliant on QB Gardner Minshew's arm. The Titans' home record reflects Levis'; they are 4-0 ATS.