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Sun, Dec 036:00 pm UTCCaesars Superdome
Track OnCBS Sports
Detroit
Lions
DET
Last 5 ATS
W/L12-5
ATS12-5
O/U11-6-0
FINAL SCORE
33
-
28
New Orleans
Saints
NO
Last 5 ATS
W/L9-8
ATS6-10
O/U6-11-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
12-5
Win /Loss
9-8
12-5
Spread
6-10
11-6-0
Over / Under
6-11-0
Key Injuries
Key Injuries
Avatar
DT
Avatar
OT
Avatar
DB
Key Injuries
Avatar
RB
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
DET @ NO
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
DET @ NO
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OVER / UNDER
DET @ NO
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69%
PUBLIC
31%
MONEY
68%
PUBLIC
32%
MONEY
Over68%
PUBLIC
Under32%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Point SpreadDetroit -4 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+2294
84-55-8 in Last 147 NFL ATS Picks
+1026
17-6-1 in Last 24 DET ATS Picks
Adam's Analysis:

The lack of belief in the Lions is understandable given Jared Goff’s last two performances, but are we really just going to throw out all of his other efforts? Goff is back indoors Sunday -- where he's a better passer -- against a Saints team that is only 2-2 at home this season. New Orleans’ secondary is thinning, and it is down two key pass catchers, though Chris Olave will be active. Detroit enters off extra rest with more time to prepare and get right on both sides of the ball. The hook has come off this line, too, making it a bit more attractive. The Lions are 4-0 ATS when favorites of 2-4 points.

Pick Made: Dec 03, 4:43 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadDetroit -4.5 -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+290
4-1 in Last 5 NFL ATS Picks
+785
9-1 in Last 10 DET ATS Picks
Emory's Analysis:

Look for the Lions offense to take advantage of a Saints defense that has been a bit vulnerable vs the run as of late. Also, they'll take advantage of a Saints offense that enters banged up at receiver and suffering from inadequate QB play from Derek Carr.

Pick Made: Dec 03, 1:49 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Avatar
Total ReceptionsJuwan Johnson Over 2.5 Total Receptions -137
LOSS
Unit1.0
+845.5
74-54 in Last 128 NFL Player Props Picks
Alex's Analysis:

It's been a disappointing season for Juwan Johnson who broke out for New Orleans last season and conventional wisdom pointed to the uber-athletic tight end building on that in year 4, especially after Derek Carr joined the Saints. Unfortunately Johnson and the Saints passing offense have struggled so far and JJ has dealt with numerous injuries which has limited his playing time. This week's matchup is shaping up as a good spot for Johnson who is one of the only healthy pass catchers on the Saints roster and facing a Lions defense that is 26th in PFF's coverage grade. Johnson is coming off 85% route participation last week vs ATL and has minimal competition for targets on Sunday.

Pick Made: Dec 03, 7:01 am UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadNew Orleans +4.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1249.5
64-48-5 in Last 117 NFL Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 NFL ATS Picks
+137
9-7-1 in Last 17 NO ATS Picks
Josh's Analysis:

The Lions appear to be trending in the wrong direction. They needed a miracle fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Bears, followed by a home loss to the Packers in which they were dominated most of the way. New Orleans has dropped two straight while its inefficient offense has mustered just 34 total points. The Saints also have major injury concerns at receiver. Even so, a win puts them in the thick of the race in the weak NFC South. AN inspired effort should at least be good enough for a cover.

Pick Made: Dec 03, 4:39 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsKalif Raymond Over 15.5 Total Receiving Yards -114
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1720
126-88 in Last 214 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Lions wideout Kalif Raymond caught all five of his targets for 90 yards on Thanksgiving. I'm not expecting anything similar here, but he has caught 19 of his 24 targets since Week 4. Raymond runs about half his routes from the slot, which is an advantageous matchup when facing the Saints. Look for Raymond to go Over this prop total for the seventh time in his last eight games.

Pick Made: Dec 03, 3:49 am UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsDavid Montgomery Over 63.5 Total Rushing Yards -114
LOSS
Unit1.0
+515
36-25 in Last 61 NFL Player Props Picks
Sia's Analysis:

Montgomery has hit this number in three games in a row and faces a Saints defense that just got gashed by the Atlanta Falcons for well over 200 rushing yards. New Orleans is a tough place to play and they have been creating a ton of turnovers (particularly at home). In light of that, I think we see a steady diet of Montgomery and Gibbs on the ground in what I think will be a positive game script. The Lions have been turnover prone and that has led to some losses, it's time to get back to basics with the run game.

Pick Made: Dec 02, 3:21 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJahmyr Gibbs Over 43.5 Total Rushing Yards -135
WIN
Unit1.0
+327
15-10 in Last 25 NFL Player Props Picks
Mackenzie's Analysis:

This is a bet against the Saints run defense. They are getting gashed for well over 5.0 ypc and 168 yards the past 4 games. With the steam leaning towards Detroit, there is good chance for the second half to be a game on the ground for them. While Montgomery gets the majority of carries it is a 60/40 split with Gibbs and with over 130 projected team rushing yards, that results in over 50 projected for Gibbs. Look for the Lions to limit Jared Goff turnovers by keeping the ball on the ground.

Pick Made: Dec 01, 10:28 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJahmyr Gibbs Over 43.5 Total Rushing Yards -135
WIN
Unit1.0
+555
9-4 in Last 13 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

We're banking on an explosive young talent to take advantage of an improved matchup. Already about league average against the run, the Saints might play without safety Marcus Maye, defensive end Cameron Jordan and linebacker Pete Werner, the latter two being key run-stoppers with high grades from Pro Football Focus. I would expect the Lions to take advantage and deploy both backs, but I think they learned two weeks ago not to short-change Gibbs on his carries when he had just eight. The overall numbers in his past three games with David Montgomery back are efficient -- 11.0 carries per game and 5.1 yards per carry. At those averages he should clear 45 yards easily.

Pick Made: Dec 01, 9:42 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadDetroit -4 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+917
83-66-3 in Last 152 NFL Picks
+362
26-20 in Last 46 NFL ATS Picks
+273
5-2 in Last 7 DET ATS Picks
Mike's Analysis:

Lions QB Jared Goff could find a cure for his turnover ills -- six the past two weeks -- against a defense that has regressed after opening the season as one of the stingiest. The unit has been rattled by injuries, though less so than the offense with the Saints' three primary receivers iffy. ATS numbers provide quite a contrast: Detroit has covered in four of five roadies, including all three as favorites, whereas New Orleans has failed to cover at home. Lastly, the Lions are daunting with extra rest, which applies here, with four straight 30-point-plus scoring games.

Pick Made: Dec 01, 6:32 pm UTC on Bet365NewJersey
Avatar
Total Rushing + Receiving YardsJahmyr Gibbs Over 76.5 Total Rushing + Receiving Yards -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1375
43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Gibbs has reached or flirted with 100 scrimmage yards for about six weeks, and while they lost a bunch of plays/touches last 2 weeks with all the Goff turnovers, they get back to business here against a Saints D that is 28th vs the run since Week 7. Gibbs will hit a HR or two in the screen game and get plenty of designed runs, too. Even last week vs a better D on a bad turnover script he nearly hit this number. He will be a scrimmage monster with high-percentage looks in a loud dome on a fast track.

Pick Made: Nov 30, 4:50 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsDavid Montgomery Over 63.5 Total Rushing Yards -114
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1375
43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

I see Dam Campbell going old school here with his QB turning the ball over six times the last two games Saints D is wilting and is bad vs the run, allowing 5 yds/carry since Week 7. Falcons just road graded them (41 rushes for 228). Lions will lean into two-back attack. Plenty for everyone in a huge road game. Montgomery has gone over 70 in three straight and I see a solid 15+ carries for him here. Lions OL will get very physical and Lions need to keep their defense off the field more. I am playing SGPs built around Lions RBs

Pick Made: Nov 30, 4:46 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Total Home PointsNew Orleans Under 21.5 Total Pts -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+880
12-3 in Last 15 NFL Team Props Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Lions defense has struggled of late, but they'll get a bit of a reprieve here against a Saints offense that's dealing with a lot of injuries and having trouble getting into the end zone. They had nine drives of 40-plus yards last week but no TDs after going 0 for 5 in the red zone. They might be without their top three receivers in this matchup with Chris Olave trying to clear concussion protocol within a week and Rashid Shaheed managing a thigh injury (Michael Thomas is already on IR). The Lions defense is much better against the run than the pass, so I wouldn't count on the Saints' run game making up the difference. Detroit's defense rebounds here.

Pick Made: Nov 30, 3:01 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadDetroit -4 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+2450
202-148-2 in Last 352 NFL Picks
+1754
79-55-2 in Last 136 NFL ATS Picks
+1224
50-34 in Last 84 NO ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Detroit had extra rest following its shocking home loss on Thanksgiving. The Lions now face a Saints team that can't score touchdowns and likely will be without its top three receivers. Star corner Marshon Lattimore remains out, and defensive end Cam Jordan has an ankle injury that forced him from the Saints' 24-15 loss at Atlanta. My favorite angle is a narrative. Detroit DC Aaron Glenn was a candidate for the Saints' head-coaching job before last season, losing out to Dennis Allen. In addition, Glenn coached alongside Allen for five years in New Orleans, so it's likely Lions OC Ben Johnson knows how to attack this defense. Look for Jared Goff to limit his turnovers as Detroit covers.

Pick Made: Nov 29, 5:31 am UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey

Team Injuries

Detroit Lions
Thursday, Dec 05, 2024
Avatar
DT
D.J. Reader
ShoulderInactive
Avatar
OT
Taylor Decker
KneeInactive
Avatar
DB
Emmanuel Moseley
Coach's DecisionInactive
Avatar
DT
Levi Onwuzurike
HamstringInactive
Avatar
G
Kayode Awosika
Coach's DecisionInactive
Avatar
DE
Josh Paschal
KneeInactive
Avatar
DT
Alim McNeill
HeadQuestionable
Avatar
SAF
Brian Branch
Lower BodyQuestionable
Avatar
OL
Giovanni Manu
Coach's DecisionInactive
New Orleans Saints
Saturday, Dec 07, 2024
Avatar
RB
Kendre Miller
HamstringQuestionable
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