The lack of belief in the Lions is understandable given Jared Goff’s last two performances, but are we really just going to throw out all of his other efforts? Goff is back indoors Sunday -- where he's a better passer -- against a Saints team that is only 2-2 at home this season. New Orleans’ secondary is thinning, and it is down two key pass catchers, though Chris Olave will be active. Detroit enters off extra rest with more time to prepare and get right on both sides of the ball. The hook has come off this line, too, making it a bit more attractive. The Lions are 4-0 ATS when favorites of 2-4 points.

Look for the Lions offense to take advantage of a Saints defense that has been a bit vulnerable vs the run as of late. Also, they'll take advantage of a Saints offense that enters banged up at receiver and suffering from inadequate QB play from Derek Carr.

It's been a disappointing season for Juwan Johnson who broke out for New Orleans last season and conventional wisdom pointed to the uber-athletic tight end building on that in year 4, especially after Derek Carr joined the Saints. Unfortunately Johnson and the Saints passing offense have struggled so far and JJ has dealt with numerous injuries which has limited his playing time. This week's matchup is shaping up as a good spot for Johnson who is one of the only healthy pass catchers on the Saints roster and facing a Lions defense that is 26th in PFF's coverage grade. Johnson is coming off 85% route participation last week vs ATL and has minimal competition for targets on Sunday.

The Lions appear to be trending in the wrong direction. They needed a miracle fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Bears, followed by a home loss to the Packers in which they were dominated most of the way. New Orleans has dropped two straight while its inefficient offense has mustered just 34 total points. The Saints also have major injury concerns at receiver. Even so, a win puts them in the thick of the race in the weak NFC South. AN inspired effort should at least be good enough for a cover.

Lions wideout Kalif Raymond caught all five of his targets for 90 yards on Thanksgiving. I'm not expecting anything similar here, but he has caught 19 of his 24 targets since Week 4. Raymond runs about half his routes from the slot, which is an advantageous matchup when facing the Saints. Look for Raymond to go Over this prop total for the seventh time in his last eight games.

Montgomery has hit this number in three games in a row and faces a Saints defense that just got gashed by the Atlanta Falcons for well over 200 rushing yards. New Orleans is a tough place to play and they have been creating a ton of turnovers (particularly at home). In light of that, I think we see a steady diet of Montgomery and Gibbs on the ground in what I think will be a positive game script. The Lions have been turnover prone and that has led to some losses, it's time to get back to basics with the run game.

This is a bet against the Saints run defense. They are getting gashed for well over 5.0 ypc and 168 yards the past 4 games. With the steam leaning towards Detroit, there is good chance for the second half to be a game on the ground for them. While Montgomery gets the majority of carries it is a 60/40 split with Gibbs and with over 130 projected team rushing yards, that results in over 50 projected for Gibbs. Look for the Lions to limit Jared Goff turnovers by keeping the ball on the ground.

We're banking on an explosive young talent to take advantage of an improved matchup. Already about league average against the run, the Saints might play without safety Marcus Maye, defensive end Cameron Jordan and linebacker Pete Werner, the latter two being key run-stoppers with high grades from Pro Football Focus. I would expect the Lions to take advantage and deploy both backs, but I think they learned two weeks ago not to short-change Gibbs on his carries when he had just eight. The overall numbers in his past three games with David Montgomery back are efficient -- 11.0 carries per game and 5.1 yards per carry. At those averages he should clear 45 yards easily.

Lions QB Jared Goff could find a cure for his turnover ills -- six the past two weeks -- against a defense that has regressed after opening the season as one of the stingiest. The unit has been rattled by injuries, though less so than the offense with the Saints' three primary receivers iffy. ATS numbers provide quite a contrast: Detroit has covered in four of five roadies, including all three as favorites, whereas New Orleans has failed to cover at home. Lastly, the Lions are daunting with extra rest, which applies here, with four straight 30-point-plus scoring games.

Gibbs has reached or flirted with 100 scrimmage yards for about six weeks, and while they lost a bunch of plays/touches last 2 weeks with all the Goff turnovers, they get back to business here against a Saints D that is 28th vs the run since Week 7. Gibbs will hit a HR or two in the screen game and get plenty of designed runs, too. Even last week vs a better D on a bad turnover script he nearly hit this number. He will be a scrimmage monster with high-percentage looks in a loud dome on a fast track.

I see Dam Campbell going old school here with his QB turning the ball over six times the last two games Saints D is wilting and is bad vs the run, allowing 5 yds/carry since Week 7. Falcons just road graded them (41 rushes for 228). Lions will lean into two-back attack. Plenty for everyone in a huge road game. Montgomery has gone over 70 in three straight and I see a solid 15+ carries for him here. Lions OL will get very physical and Lions need to keep their defense off the field more. I am playing SGPs built around Lions RBs

The Lions defense has struggled of late, but they'll get a bit of a reprieve here against a Saints offense that's dealing with a lot of injuries and having trouble getting into the end zone. They had nine drives of 40-plus yards last week but no TDs after going 0 for 5 in the red zone. They might be without their top three receivers in this matchup with Chris Olave trying to clear concussion protocol within a week and Rashid Shaheed managing a thigh injury (Michael Thomas is already on IR). The Lions defense is much better against the run than the pass, so I wouldn't count on the Saints' run game making up the difference. Detroit's defense rebounds here.

Detroit had extra rest following its shocking home loss on Thanksgiving. The Lions now face a Saints team that can't score touchdowns and likely will be without its top three receivers. Star corner Marshon Lattimore remains out, and defensive end Cam Jordan has an ankle injury that forced him from the Saints' 24-15 loss at Atlanta. My favorite angle is a narrative. Detroit DC Aaron Glenn was a candidate for the Saints' head-coaching job before last season, losing out to Dennis Allen. In addition, Glenn coached alongside Allen for five years in New Orleans, so it's likely Lions OC Ben Johnson knows how to attack this defense. Look for Jared Goff to limit his turnovers as Detroit covers.