Gardner Minshew has been a one-man funnel to the Over, because because he consistently puts both teams in position to score. That could change Sunday against a plodding Saints club, but it's still worth a play on the Over against this modest total.

Taylor found the end zone last week and, with Zach Moss banged up, he should see the majority of the workload Sunday. You have to like his chances of repeating the feat.

Alvin Kamara, in his four games since returning from the suspension list. Kamara has caught, 13, 3, 7 and 12 passes. Derek Carr continues to gain continuity with Kamara. Indianapolis’ defense is average defending running backs in receptions and receiving yards.

Derek Carr threw to Alvin Kamara 14 times last week while completing 12 of them for 91 yards. Indianapolis is on the average side when it comes to defending pass to running backs.

I do not agree with the line move, my numbers have Indianapolis a 3-point favorite. The Saints offense has struggled in the Red Zone mainly because Derek Carr's yards per pass, 6.3 is the lowest since his roookie year. His TD to Intercepton ratio is 6 to 4, the worst of his career. The Colts have solid offensive weapons with Zack Moss, Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman Jr.. I have the Colts two points better on offense but the Saints two point better on defense. Take the Colts plus the points.

Gardner Minshew has started three games this year, putting up 227, 329 and 305 yards. He should throw for at least 220 yards Sunday against the Saints: New Orleans plays more man coverage than any other team, and Minshew excels against man coverage. The Saints have been very tough against the run lately, allowing 92.7 yards per game over their last three. That will force Minshew to keep throwing.

Alvin Kamara is one of the most dynamic running backs in the league. The Saints want him to be heavily involved in the passing game and have targeted him 39 times across the four games that he has played. That left him with three games with at least seven receptions. In two of those games, he had at least 12 receptions. Lots of juice here, but I’m still on the over.

Both teams come into this week on two-game losing streaks, but I liked what I saw from the Colts for the most part last week, as they put up 6.8 yards per play against an elite Browns defense only to watch Gardner Minshew continually fumble the game away. The unit can have similar success against the Saints, a team with not quite as good a defense that has also been brutal offensively, ranking 28th in yards per play while struggling on third down and in the red zone. That's the type of team I'm looking to fade on the road on a close line, and I'll take even odds on the moneyline at FanDuel.

Gardner Minshew has shown why he keeps getting NFL jobs and why he can't keep them. The mercurial backup QB is capable of moving an offense but is as carefree with the ball as he is with his hairstyle. The Saints have lost three of four and should be in desperation mode against a Colts club that is fun to watch but has a limited ceiling.