If games were 30 minutes long, the Big Red would be playoff contenders. Unfortunately, the NFL stipulates one hour of playing time, and as the Cards are -74 in point differential after halftime this season...well, Arizona, we have a problem. The passing game has dwindled to almost nothing, with Josh Dobbs not clearing 100 YP until deep in the 4th Q last week at Seattle, the Cards' fourth consecutive SU and spread loss as the Kyler Murray absence is now really being felt in the desert. Hosting the hot Ravens is hardly the recipe for a quick recovery, especially after Lamar Jackson off of one of his best game (357 YP and 3 TDP, plus another rush TD last week vs. Lions).

The Cardinals are now a take at this lucrative key number. Though it was predictable this feisty team would eventually hit a wall, they've still remained reasonably competitive and deserved to cover last week against Seattle. We've seen this annual groundswell of love for the Ravens before, and it's leading to value in this line.

A couple of things have happened since the beginning of the season that lead me to a double digit win for the Ravens: The Cardinals are no longer surprising anyone and the Ravens appear to be solving their red zone efficiency issues. It appears that the Joshua Dobbs experience has completely fizzled and the Cardinals simply don't have the firepower to keep pace with the Ravens. The Ravens are on an opposite trajectory as they are healthy, have a defense that is swarming and an offense that is starting to finish drives. All signs point to a double digit win in this one.

Ten teams have been at least 9.5-point home 'dogs since the start of 2022, and the only one that didn't cover featured a starting QB that had been with the team eight days and missed the cover by two points (the same one we're backing here). In fact, only three of those teams lost outright in regulation. Throw in the 2021 season and teams that are at least 9.5-point home 'dogs are 19-6-1 ATS over the last 2.5 seasons. It's easy to say the Ravens are so much better than the Cardinals that Arizona has no chance, but you could say that in virtually all of those matchups. Arizona finds a way at home.

Edwards had one of the better games of his NFL career last week with 64 yards on 14 carries and an 80-yard reception. Even so, it was just the second time this year he clipped this number and the blowout game script contributed. Look for Edwards to regress a bit Sunday as the Ravens return to the committee approach.

In the NFL this 9.5 point spread seems like a lot. But, when you factor in how well QB Lamar Jackson is playing, combined with how well they're playing defensively, facing a team in transition it doesn't seem like enough. This line has already jumped a full point since the beginning of the week.

These two teams are moving in opposite directions. The Ravens look like possibly the best team in football after dominating a great Lions team in a game that was over at halftime. The Cardinals have scored one TD in the last two weeks and aren't likely to get any better in this matchup. The Ravens defense has only surrendered six TDs all year and no more than one in a game since Week 2. It would be a surprise if the Cardinals got even to 17 points here.

Ravens rookie Zay Flowers is set up for a big game at Arizona, which gives up the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts. Flowers draws nearly eight targets per game and has cleared this number in five of seven games. Lamar Jackson said he loves Flowers because the rookie is explosive and is "doing everything at full speed." Look for another strong game Sunday.