Buffalo is in a bit of a letdown spot following its statement win last week over Miami and the ensuing cross-globe flight to London. The Jags weren't perfect last week but showed some signs of life in their win over the Falcons. The backdrop exists for the Jags to at least push this one to the wire.

Buffalo is targeting two wide receivers and two tight ends. With that, Gabe Davis' percentage of targets is around 25%. If Josh Allen is throwing anywhere around 200 yards this should be a safe over. Our model has him projected for 51 yards. The Model also likes the Bills big in this game on the grounds of Davis and Stefon Diggs having some big plays. But even if it ends up being a close game, that just means more opportunity for the receivers and less time running the clock out on the ground.

Kincaid outsnapped Dawson Knox for the first time last week, which seems like perfect timing for him to break out in London. He's led Buffalo in slot routes the last several games, and coincidentally, Jacksonville has been exploited by slot tight ends (including Jonnu Smith's 6-96 line for Atlanta last week). In general, the Jaguars are giving up the 3rd most receiving yards to tight ends and we're only asking for 28+ yards, which seems like a bargain for Buffalo's 2023 first round pick.

Jacksonville looked as good as they've looked all year against Atlanta in London last week. My concern here is the timing of the travel, with the Jaguars spending two weeks in London (albeit swapping resorts and stadiums, which does make somewhat of a difference?) and the Bills coming over on short rest. But the Bills are getting hot at the right time and I'm not sure they're going to be slowed down a ton by a Jaguars defense that is fine but not great. The Tottenham turf led to 48+ points both times last year so look for the over here too. And if the Jags and Bills get into a massive shootout I'm not sure the Jags can keep up.

The Jaguars are coming off a solid win in London against a limited offense, while the Bills just beat what had started to look like an elite Dolphins team by 28 points. Buffalo's defense is struggling against the run but the Jags run game isn't playing well. The Bills are first in interception rate and sack rate, so this could be another performance for Jacksonville like the KC game, while the Bills offense looks tough to slow down after three straight games with 37+ points. I'm interested to see if spending the week in London turns out to be a distraction for Jacksonville, but I think this line should be -7 anyway, so I'll take the value under 6.