Minkah Fitzpatrick is poised to suit up for a Steelers defense that proved to be a difference-maker last week. Pittsburgh may be struggling against the run, but Josh Jacobs has disappointed massively early in this season behind a rough Raiders offensive line. Getting a chance to fade Josh McDaniels in primetime plays into this, and Las Vegas' Week 1 win over Denver is put in greater context now given the Dolphins-Broncos result earlier in the day. This is good value for the Steelers.

Sunday night is expected to be a tight game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers. There may be more offense than expected on both sides, and I’m looking for the Raiders to have success with their passing game. Jakobi Meyers should be is the type of possession receiver that Jimmy Garoppolo covets. Play his over receiving yards

Maybe getting out of Pittsburgh will help Kenny Pickett a little, although we won Over Pickens on this same prop (smaller number) last week thanks to a 71-yard TD. Pickett wasn't particularly good otherwise or much at all in Game 1. The Raiders aren't particularly good against the pass.

Kenny Pickett found his guy in George Pickens. Pickett likes to find his WR1 and stick to him. Pat Friermuth has been in the shadows a bit with only 5 receiving yards on 2 catches. Pickens accounts for 37% of the receiving yards on this team, we have him projected for 71 yards.

With Diontae Johnson (hamstring) on IR, Pickens is the new top wide receiver for the Steelers. That role left him with 10 targets in Week 2 against the Browns, which he turned into four receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. Kenny Pickett has not been good, but the combination of Pickens’ big-play upside and added targets makes the over here the way to go.

This is an inflated line for Jimmy G who has failed to eclipse 200 passing yards in consecutive weeks. The Steelers pass defense has been solid and rank 8th in defensive EPA per dropback and 5th in quick pressure rate. I believe this combination ultimately limits Jimmy's passing volume and as a result the Raiders shift to a run heavy approach. Even if the Raiders opt to go pass heavy, this is still a large number for the former 49er signal caller.

Warren has generated six targets from Kenny Pickett in each of Pittsburgh's first two games, and turned those into games of four and five receptions. His 41% snap share in the Steelers' backfield, especially going against a team that surrendered the fourth most receptions to RBs last year, seems encouraging. I believe Warren gets at least five targets as a floor in a game Pittsburgh may be trailing in the fourth quarter.

The Steelers offense has been brutal through two games, but it has also faced two of the toughest defenses in the league. Now it's up against a Raiders unit that has allowed its opponents to finish on its side of the field on 13 of their 15 drives. Josh Jacobs is only averaging 0.2 yards per carry before contact, and that bad Vegas O-line has its toughest defensive test to date. The market has started to push this line to Steelers +3 in some spots after the lookahead was Steelers -1.5, and I suggest taking that number while it's available.