Christian Watson has been cleared to play for the Packers, giving Aaron Rodgers his most explosive target against a suspect defense that can be beaten over the top. The Vikings have been tremendous in one-score games this season (11-0), but there's an element of luck to that mark. It seems like the hook is coming here before kickoff, so we are locking it in ASAP. Green Bay and Rodgers are obviously better in Lambeau Field than anywhere else, and with the team trending toward playoff qualification, this is indeed a must-win spot. Back the Pack.

Jones isn't fully healthy, dealing with knee and ankle issues and has gone well under this total in four of the past five as he cedes carries to AJ Dillon. Overall, Jones has rushed for more than 52.5 yards only six times this year. Minnesota is last in the NFL against the pass, so I expect Aaron Rodgers to throw plenty. Jones no doubt will be quite involved as a pass-catcher, but I don't see him doing nearly as much as a runner. The SL Model has him with 51 yards.

Green Bay has won nine straight December and January regular-season games, and this is a must-win spot. The Vikings are playing outdoors for the first time since Nov. 13, have less to play for, and have only covered one of their last seven games as underdogs. With Christian Watson (hip) a gametime decision, look for Aaron Jones to pick up the slack as a runner and receiver as the Packers cover a field goal.

Justin Jefferson is an absolute freak. That the Broncos took Jerry Jeudy and the Eagles Jalen Raegor at receiver instead of Jefferson will go down as all-time mistakes. Dallas took CeeDee Lamb ahead of JJ, but that's at least somewhat acceptable. Jefferson has at least 123 yards in three straight games. However, I believe Packers Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander will back up this week's trash talk regarding Jefferson, who had 184 yards and two TDs in the first meeting with Green Bay -- for some reason GB defensive coordinator Joe Barry didn't have Alexander shadowing Jefferson but mainly Rasul Douglas. Since that game, Douglas has moved from the slot position to an outside spot and Alexander has been used at times to follow a specific receiver throughout a game -- a strategy Barry did not employ against Jefferson. Fully expect that here. And I honestly don't think Kirk Cousins has a great day, either. I noticed RJ picked under his passing yards. Jefferson has been held under 60 receiving yards in both career games at Lambeau Field (26 yards in 2020 and 58 yards last season).

OK, new year new fortune. Finally back to full capacity, etc., at home after the Ian mess. Ready to rock and roll. I will be playing a Justin Jefferson prop as well. I simply wonder how truly motivated the Vikings are in their first outdoor game in almost two months. Yes, they can still earn the NFC's top seed, but that carrot may vanish in the early window if the Eagles beat the visiting Saints. Sure, Minnesota would like to get the No. 2 seed at worst, but I think a minor injury tweak and Coach Kevin O'Connell has to pull even his best player(s) to ensure full health for wild-card weekend when I expect the Vikings to play -- maybe against Green Bay again. The Packers HAVE to have this game.

The Vikings are set to play a rare road game outdoors, the first one they've had since Nov. 13. Kirk Cousins hasn't seen much action outdoors this late in the season either, and most of the time he's gotten to play teams like the Buccaneers and 49ers in mild weather. But the main reason to fade his passing yards total is that the Packers have allowed the fewest pass yards to quarterbacks in the league, just over 200 per game, as teams exploit Green Bay's weakness defending the run. Justin Jefferson should get his, but this will largely be a Dalvin Cook game, which keeps Cousins under the total. I'd play this down to 260.5.

The Packers have played three of their last four games on the road yet the offense has come alive, with Green Bay averaging nearly 28 points per game during that run. But Aaron Rodgers still isn't throwing for a lot of yards, with his 238 last week marking his highest number since Week 9. That should change here against an awful Vikings pass defense that was just lit up by another QB that doesn't typically throw for a lot of yards in Daniel Jones. The Vikings have allowed the most passing yards in the league (just over 296 per game), so it's clear what Rodgers has to do to put his team in position to win.

The Packers continue to make a playoff push but struggled to stop the Miami offense until a potential undiagnosed head injury for Tua Tagovailoa changed the course of the game. But while the Vikings offense could have a lot of success in this matchup, I like backing Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field late in the season against one of the league's worst pass defenses, especially if Christian Watson is able to play after being called day-to-day with a hip injury. The market has wanted to fade Minnesota for weeks, so I'm not willing to wait on Watson's status before locking this in on the key number of 3.