I'm playing the moneyline on favorites pretty much going forward (always the exception) because of what happened in last night's New Mexico-Wyoming college hoops game (definitely taking a 24-hour break from that sport at a minimum). Got burned at -1.5 on the Lobos as they won by a point when some clown missed two free throws with like one second left. Just unbelievable. I normally would have played the ML but I was rushing to get the pick in before tip. I'm not going to get burned by a Pats 2-point win here or something. They have to have it, while Miami is still in playoff contention with a loss. Teddy Bridgewater might not lose the game for the Fins like Tua Tagovailoa could have, but he also likely can't win it like Tua might have. Plus, the Miami defense has been one of the NFL's worst away from home.

The Dolphins won't have Tua Tagovailoa for this game, which has caused this total to come down. But the Dolphins have scored more than 20 points just once in the last four weeks anyway, and that was a game where the rushing attack took over. I think Teddy Bridgewater is a fine replacement to run the offense, and he should get the advantage of a beat-up cornerback room for New England. But the main reason to love the over is a Miami defense that has averaged 31.5 points allowed on the road. Mac Jones has thrown just one pick in his last seven games and is facing a defense with eight picks all year, so I think this is much more likely to be an offensive game than the market is projecting.

The Dolphins head into a tough matchup with the Patriots without their starting QB, but Tua Tagovailoa hadn't played that well during the Dolphins' four-game losing streak apart from hitting some big plays last week. Teddy Bridgewater has been solid when pressed into duty midgame and now gets to prepare as the starter. He faces a Patriots defense that looks great statistically but has struggled against tougher matchups, Whether the Dolphins with Bridgewater qualify is a matter of opinion, but I'll trust Mike McDaniel to keep things close even if his defense lays another dud on the road, though the Patriots offense last scored more than two TDs in a game in Week 6.

The Dolphins will dodge the inclement weather that often haunts them at late-season division games in the northeast. However, they likely will leave concussed QB Tua Tagovailoa at home. In two extensive appearances this season with backup Teddy Bridgewater, the 'Fins have scored in the teens. Miami has dropped four in a row amid a daunting set of opponents, and the Patriots provide no relief. If they are reeling from a pair of nightmarish defeats, coach Bill Belichick will remind them that a playoff berth remains within reach.