Other than this being a home game for the Rams, most else here swings in the Broncos' favor. Los Angeles is on a short week, while Denver is getting a couple starters back. The Broncos defense is the best unit on the field, and as a team, they have covered three straight with only single-digit losses to the Ravens and Chiefs. The Rams are the absurd Baker Mayfield comeback away from having lost eight straight. They are also a less explosive defense without Aaron Donald. This is unbetable if the hook comes. We're going with the team that has a better defense and more explosive, healthy playmakers .

This matchup features the two lowest-scoring teams in the league, which is why the total is at 36.5 despite not being affected by the adverse weather conditions sweeping the rest of the league. The Broncos have shown some life recently, posting their top two point totals of the season over the last two weeks, once with their backup QB. The Rams defense has allowed 24-plus points in five of its last six games, and in the other got dominated before halftime. Baker Mayfield has a better chance for success here than he did in the brutal conditions in Green Bay last week. These teams don't have to do too much to get over this number.

This line could hit 3, so I'll jump in now at Broncos -2.5 (-120). Denver scored touchdowns on three of four second-half possessions in last week's win over Arizona. That 24-15 victory followed a surprisingly competitive 34-28 loss to Kansas City. With Russell Wilson set to return from his concussion, the Broncos should have success against a Rams defense missing anchor Aaron Donald. Baker Mayfield will struggle against the league's top pass defense. Denver has held opposing QBs to an NFL-low 75.9 passer rating.