The Steelers enter with the best unit on the field (defense), homefield advantage, the better coach, more discipline and a level of sentiment given the circumstances. Beyond that, though, Pittsburgh should be able to run all over Las Vegas in a game that will mostly be contested on the ground. Lots has been said about Derek Carr's record in cold-weather games, but he's never had a set of pass catchers in a situation like this. Rather than it be a Carr issue, the passing game Saturday night will be negated circumstantially. Getting this under a field goal is key. The Steelers are on a 4-0 ATS run against sub .500 teams.

Adams is an absolute stud but it's going to be dangerously cold tonight in Pittsburgh so I don't see much passing yardage on either side. I was leaning under Derek Carr yards too, but that total has plummeted from its open so I'll just stick with this one. Presuming Mike Tomlin and Co. double Adams and make the Hunter Renfrows and Darren Wallers of the world do all the work. Carr has not been good in his career in cold weather. Yeah I may come back and play his under but will wait and see where it lands.

Essentially a playoff elimination game on Saturday night and it's going to be very cold and windy thanks to the bomb cyclone. California native and former Fresno State QB Derek Carr is the epitome of a warm-weather QB. In his NFL career, he is 0-4 in games that had freezing temperatures at kickoff with a terrible 68.2 rating and his teams averaging only 14.3 points. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett is back for Pittsburgh and he's familiar with cold-weather games from his days at Pitt. In his first five games, he had nine turnovers. Past five (before missing last week): zero. Very sad that Pittsburgh legend Franco Harris died this week ahead of the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception. It almost seems like the Steelers HAVE TO/ARE DESTINED TO win now.

Derek Carr will be attempting to overcome his history of awful performances in cold weather, where he's 1-7 when the temperature is below 40 and 0-4 in freezing conditions. And the game is going to be in his cold hands, as the Steelers are elite at defending the run. Pittsburgh gets Kenny Pickett back for this one, and he should give the rushing attack a boost. That Steelers run game has topped 150 yards in three of its last four games, while the Raiders run defense just got pummeled by the Patriots. With homefield advantage against an indoor team in the cold, plus the coaching advantage, the Steelers are the right side here.