Washington enters this game in a unique spot. Not only is it coming off a bye, the last game it played was against New York, meaning the Commanders have basically been given three weeks of preparation for the Giants in addition to being rested and playing at home. Washington was -2.5 on the road two weeks ago in the tie, so it's understandable why the line sits at -4. However, the Commanders enter with a better defense (they dominated time of possession in the last meeting) and a running game that is clicking. The Giants are down two offensive linemen and start Daniel Jones, who struggles massively in primetime games. This may come down to a field goal -- and if so, that would suck -- but I like Washington's chances to win this handily.

Rare back-to-back games vs. the same opponent for Washington as it tied the G-Men in Week 13 but largely dominated and outgained New York by 95 yards. The Giants have been completely exposed as they are way too reliant offensively on Saquon Barkley -- who clearly isn't close to 100% (I did play QB Daniel Jones over 27.5 yards rushing tonight in part because Barkley is banged up). Big edge for Washington in that it comes off a bye week so the Commanders are quite healthy, although Chase Young still won't make his season debut. The only team the Commanders have lost to over the past two months is NFL-best Philadelphia.

When these teams met two week ago, Jones had 71 yards rushing on 12 carries. Fellow mobile QBs Justin Fields and Marcus Mariota each ran for more than 45 yards against the Commanders, who allow the 10th most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Saquon Barkley isn't 100% healthy so Jones may have to run a fair amount to move the chains. The SL Model has Jones with 35 yards rushing.

The Giants don’t have many viable options left at wide receiver. Kenny Golladay has been a bust and Sterling Shepard (knee) and Wan’Dale Robinson (knee) are both on IR. They claimed Hodgins off waivers in November from the Bills, the former team of head coach Brian Daboll. Hodgins has worked his way into a more prominent role, receiving six targets in both of the last two games. That helped him record 44 and 38 receiving yards, respectively. He might not be a big name, but the over here could still prove to be profitable.

The Giants will once again be without their number one cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee). That leaves Fabian Moreau, who was signed to the practice squad at the start of the season, as their top cornerback left. Their best safety Xavier McKinney (hand) will also miss his sixth straight game. With Jackson and McKinney out in Week 13, McLaurin caught eight of 12 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. Don’t expect the Giants to be able to slow him down in this rematch, either.

The Giants should have beaten the Commanders in Week 13 when they tied 20-20. But this spot favors Washington, which comes off its bye and could get Chase Young back. New York spent last week getting run over by the Eagles. The Giants give up 149.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 29th. Their only win since Week 7 has come against the lowly Texans. Since 2019, home teams in division games on Sunday Night Football are 16-6-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season. Lay the points with the rested Commanders.