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Sun 12/11 | 9:25 PM UTC | Santa Clara
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9, 4-12 ATS
TB +3.5-115
TB +158
Over 38.5-110
San Francisco 49ers 15-5, 13-7 ATS
SF -3.5-105
SF -190
Under 38.5-110

Expert Picks

NFL | Tampa Bay 7 @ San Francisco 35 | 12/11 | 9:25 PM UTC

San Francisco -190

WIN

ANALYSIS: I realize no QB making his first-ever NFL start has beaten Tom Brady. But it's a short week for the Bucs and their offense just stinks. I don't see Tampa Bay scoring more than 17 points against this stellar Niners unit. And I think Kyle Shanahan can use Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, etc., in ways that will limit the risk for Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy. At least he got a lot of game time in last week. I might think different if this was his first time taking the field and if Tampa wasn't on a short week and obviously having to travel across country (not that going East to West is a huge deal). I can totally understand those on the Bucs +3.5 but I simply don't want to worry about it.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+695 22-10 IN LAST 32 NFL PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 SF ML PICKS
+500 5-0 IN LAST 5 TB ML PICKS

Season Splits

8-9, 4-12 ATS
15-5, 13-7 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
27%
3-8-1
7-5
58%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
50%
3-3
4-2
67%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
0%
0-0
6-4
60%
When Spread was +2 to +5
SPREAD
When Spread was -5 to -2
0%
0-0
2-1
67%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
0%
0-0
4-1
80%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 40-55% of Games
50%
2-2
2-2
50%
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
0%
0-1
1-1
50%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
22%
2-7
7-3
70%
vs SF
HEAD TO HEAD
vs TB
0%
0-0
0-0
0%