The Lions are only 4-7, but they’ve played the toughest schedule in the NFL so far by a mile. All seven of Detroit’s losses were against teams currently above .500, as were two of their wins — they’ve only played two teams all season (Bears, Packers) that don’t currently have a winning record. The Jaguars will be the third, and though Trevor Lawrence has played well the last three weeks, his comeback wins came against teams (Ravens, Raiders) that have been blowing leads all season. Jacksonville has one road win since 2019. Grab the home team.

The Jaguars are coming off their signature performance in last week's comeback over the Ravens. They have won two of three and played reasonably well at Kansas City in their last defeat. The equally erratic Lions won three straight against modest competition before barely falling at home to Buffalo on Thanksgiving. Jacksonville appears more poised to finish strong as second-year QB Trevor Lawrence looks increasingly more comfortable.

One win, 21 losses. That's the straight-up mega-slump on the road for Jacksonville. It overrides the fact that QB Trevor Lawrence is playing lights-out. Detroit carried a three-game outright win streak into its Thanksgiving Day game with Buffalo and made the Bills sweat in a three-point loss. They are better rested than the visitors. Jacksonville might be fortunate that Lions backers have pushed the game to a pick'em. The Jags are 0-3 ATS this season as favorites and 0-6 dating to 2020.

Both these teams are trending upward, though it was the Jaguars who secured a huge win over the Ravens with a game-winning touchdown drive by Trevor Lawrence last week. But prior to that, they had just one win in their previous seven games. The Lions, however, gave up game-winning scores to the Dolphins and Bills with less than 15 seconds left on the clock in the last five weeks but have three wins sandwiched between those close calls. This Jacksonville team isn't in the class of those AFC powerhouses, and with Detroit as healthy as it's been all year, I like the Lions to put a ton of points on the board and get a key turnover or two to win this game.