The Falcons' offense is far from flashy, but somehow they engage in medium-score games -- and sometimes high-scoring. Only two have ended as low as the 30s, and those produced 36 and 37. They are ground-oriented going against an opponent that has allowed the sixth most rushing yards per outing. Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke has kick-started his offense since replacing Carson Wentz. Atlanta's D has permitted more yards per game than all but three teams. This does not add up to such a low total.

The Commanders are 4-0-1 ATS with Taylor Heinicke this season, and this is a great matchup. Atlanta won't have Kyle Pitts and figures to try to run the ball even more than its usual 57 percent rate. Washington has an elite rushing defense. (third in efficiency) and just held Dameon Pierce to eight yards on 10 carries. Pierce had ripped his two previous opponents -- Giants, Eagles -- for 233 yards on 44 carries. With Logan Thomas expected to play, Washington should have all its key weapons available. Lay the points.