Sixth-round draft pick Sam Ehlinger is making his first NFL start, and he’s laying 3 points? The Colts were only 4-point favorites on Monday morning, a day before Matt Ryan got benched. Ehlinger’s much more mobile than Ryan, but the Colts line couldn’t protect Ryan and there’s no reason to believe they’ll suddenly start blocking for Ehlinger, especially against a Washington team that’s in the top 10 in sacks per game. With Indy’s last two QB failures — Ryan and Carson Wentz — watching from the sidelines, back the young QB in Taylor Heinicke who's made 16 NFL starts (including playoffs) and is getting points. Grab the three.

Sam Ehlinger has appeared in only three games during his brief NFL career, and in those three games, he's yet to throw a pass. He's had three carries for nine yards. Sunday will be his first NFL start. And he's favored? OK, sure. Good luck with that.

All of a sudden, Taylor Heinicke is the grizzled veteran in a QB matchup. Though in his fifth year, Heinicke owns about one season's worth of starts. In the opposite corner is Sam Ehlinger, who has yet to unfurl a pass in 1 1/2 pro seasons. The Commanders showed some giddy-up in last Sunday’s win over Green Bay under Heinicke. Indy averages a measly 16.1 ppg, whereas Washington ranks 12th in team defense. The Colts have no business spotting a field goal. It’d be nice to snare 3.5 points ATS, but an even three might be sufficient.

Oftentimes, the market overadjusts to backup QBs and you can find value backing them, but I don't see that as the case here with the Colts still field goal favorites. We don't know how good Sam Ehlinger will be, but we do know his offensive line isn't magically going to get better, and they have to face a tough Washington front in this matchup. Taylor Heinicke is 8-8 as the starter the last two seasons, and I would peg his performance as the high end of potential outcomes for Ehlinger. If the inexperienced former sixth-round pick actually is good, this could still be a competitive game that the Colts win by 1-3 points. Many of the potential outcomes work in our favor here.