Aaron Rodgers has been one of the most profitable quarterbacks in the NFL for way longer than most, but something’s just not right with the Packers. Some of it is personnel-based – and that doesn’t get better this week with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb both sidelined – but the defense is struggling as well. The Bills, meanwhile, have played some close games; however, they have dominated the worst teams on their schedule to this point beating the Steelers, Titans and Rams by an average of 30 points. Yes, I double-checked my math there. Healthy and rested coming off the bye hosting a flawed team in primetime, look for Josh Allen & Co. to cook. I like this better at -10 but am willing to take a flier at -10.5 for what should be a two-touchdown victory for a homestanding Buffalo team that might be the best in the league.

The product displayed on a week-to-week basis by the Green Bay Packers may be bottom-five in the league. Sure they may have three wins, but they’re struggling to muster any type of offense. What seemed like a great primetime game before the season has likely turned into a true display of how much the Packers have declined. Buffalo is one of the few elite teams that does not take any opponent lightly. This should get ugly. Take the Bills.

You don’t need much more data than this: In a decade and a half as a starter, QB Aaron Rodgers has never received a pile of points this high. Of course, this Green Bay offense borders on his weakest ever, but the No. 8-ranked defense can keep the Bills from going off. Rodgers’ decision to call out teammates (not by name) this week could work either way. Here is hoping that it will serve as motivation.

At some point it's time to give up on the Packers, and it appears this is the week for the market after they lost as five-point favorites against Washington. Or is it? Green Bay is 3.5-point faves in Detroit on the lookahead next week, which is the same as Miami this week. So this huge Packers spread might be all about the Bills, who I believed the market was quick to put sky-high in its power ratings. But this team is 4-1-1 ATS, so maybe the joke is on me. I think Aaron Rodgers, who has just three picks on the year, does enough to keep this inside the number despite Green Bay's injuries at receiver against an elite Buffalo team with a slightly inflated power rating.