The Raiders are badly in need of a win and come off the bye at home getting a Texans team that is struggling in all phases. Las Vegas has the opportunity to slow down the one thing Houston has going for it -- a running game -- while Josh Jacobs should have a field day on the other end. And should the Texans sell out to stop Jacobs, the triumvirate of Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins should not have much problem getting open -- even with Darren Waller missing another game. This is a big spread for the Raiders to cover, and they have not had much success doing so in the past, but they are the far superior offensive team and should be able to open up and maintain a lead in this game.

This is the perfect example of why I think the Jaguars are rated too high. Two weeks ago, the Texans beat them 13-6 in Jacksonville with just 248 yards of offense. The Texans defense isn’t that special either, ranking No. 31 of 32 teams, allowing 414 yards per game. The Raiders have only one victory -- and four close losses -- but this is the first game where they’re not facing a good NFL quarterback. I think the Las Vegas offense has some fun in an easy home victory. Raiders to cover.

Both these teams enter this game off the bye, and in a situation like that, I like to back the road underdog who could perform above expectation. It's a little striking to see the Raiders as seven-point favorites in the first place considering their 1-4 record, as they seem like the quintessential "play to the level of your opponent" team. I could see Houston coming into this game with a plan to get the passing attack going after two weeks to prepare, and that will be key considering the Raiders' strong rush defense to date. If the Raiders are an average or better team, this line makes sense, but I think it's too early to put them at that level.

Houston has been very competitive in all but one game and won as a touchdown underdog in Jacksonville. Derek Carr is 5-15 ATS when laying more than a field goal, and he won't have Darren Waller again. Las Vegas also is missing its top corner, Nate Hobbs. Take the points.