If Aaron Rodgers can't beat Taylor Heinicke (I realize they won't ever be on the field at the same time but still), I don't know what to say. Much as I hate the Packers.
This seems like rock bottom for the Packers, which enter as a road favorite against a Commanders team not only starting Taylor Heinicke but doing so with Dyami Brown, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas all sidelined. Washington will also be down some key defenders as Green Bay spent the week attempting to retool its offensive line and find some answers after Aaron Rodgers got flattened last Sunday. While Randall Cobb and Christian Watson are out for the Pack, Sammy Watkins looks to be back to provide some relief. Green Bay has looked like a shell of itself this season, but Sunday is a spot where it appears to be offering some value.
Never thought we’d go Under in an Aaron Rodgers game with such a low total. The Green Bay offense ranks 24th, and Rodgers will be throwing to some no-names with WRs Randall Cobb and Christian Watson out. The Commanders’ last four games have generated between 19 and 38 points, though the offense can't get much worse with Taylor Heinicke sliding in at QB for Carson Wentz. The way to attack the Packers’ offense is running the ball, and a ground game in D.C. would keep the clock moving.
The Commanders own the better defensive line (No. 12 vs. No. 32), special teams (No. 5 vs. No. 30) and overall defense (No. 11 vs. No. 24) at Football Outsiders. I like Taylor Heinicke starting for the home team. Green Bay is dealing with numerous injuries on their offensive line. This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. I like Washington in this spot!
Both teams are really struggling on offense despite having some explosive playmakers at both running back and wide receiver. Armed with Aaron Rodgers, you have to believe that the offense will start clicking at some point. And with Washington, Taylor Heinicke getting the start could be the shot of life this offense needs, as he brings the ability to create off-script that has been lacking under Carson Wentz. I don't expect a 35-30 type shootout, but I do expect both teams to be able to find consistent enough offense to cruise over 41.5 points.
Green Bay's offensive line is struggling to pick up stunts, and it resulted in Aaron Rodgers getting sacked four times and hit nine times in the 27-10 home loss to the Jets. Rodgers was pressured 15 times. The Commanders can pressure quarterbacks -- they had 12 hits and five sacks on Justin Fields last Thursday. I believe switching from Carson Wentz to the more mobile Taylor Heinicke will give Washington's offense a lift. It's hard to back a team that's looked so pathetic offensively, but the Commanders have talent that's waiting to break out, especially Terry McLaurin. Grab the points.
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