Just as I’m beginning to buy into the Falcons – and they deserve it, by the way, for vastly exceeding expectations to start the season – they end up in a tough matchup against a Bengals team that excels exactly where Sunday’s visitors do not: the passing game. Cincinnati should have its full complement of wide receivers back just in time for the league’s 31st ranked pass defense. Meanwhile, key weapon Cordarrelle Patterson was just placed on IR for the Falcons, and Marcus Mariota seems allergic to targeting Kyle Pitts, who has just 13 receptions in five games. This would be a bit more comfortable at Bengals -6, but I expect Cincinnati to continue thriving at home (5-1 ATS in its last six) and end Atlanta’s incredible ATS streak to start the season.

Just not a Falcons believer but then again I wasn't sure they would win even three games this season. If you make them one-dimensional, well, it's Marcus Mariota. I just realized this is a matchup of former Heisman winners. Almost forgot Mariota won it. He's like my boy Gino Torretta from the Canes. Until someone convinces me otherwise, I am convinced that is whom Vin Diesel's Fast & Furious character is named after. How did they transition from LA car thieves to stopping nuclear subs and even into space? I digress ...

The Bengals are a couple of clock ticks from a four-game winning streak, with a loss to Baltimore on a last-gasp field goal mixed in with three victories. The Falcons’ 6-0 against-the-spread record is keeping this line under a full touchdown. But Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow should tear up an injury-riddled secondary that has yielded the most passing yards in the league, particularly with WR Tee Higgins returning. Atlanta’s one-dimensional offense that features a formidable ground attack should get pushback from the ninth-ranked rushing defense.

The love affair with the Falcons from an against-the-spread standpoint finally can wane. Atlanta's ATS winning streak comes to an end against the Bengals, who will be primed for a good performance. They survived a very difficult part of their schedule during which they played four of five on the road. This may have the typical pattern of a Cincinnati game that is mundane through the early part of the third quarter, but look for the Bengals to turn it on when it matters. Buy the hook and lay the points.

The Falcons continue to be cover machines yet remain moderate underdogs this week, but the value in this matchup should be on the Over. Atlanta's offense is top 10 in both pass and rush yards per play, though they keep it on the ground as much as possible by design. That's a good thing against the Bengals, who are much worse against the run than the pass. The Bengals' pass offense should also have success against an Atlanta defense that ranks last in the league in sack rate, making Cincinnati's offensive-line issues less of a fatal flaw. With the Falcons scoring at least 23 points against everyone but Tampa Bay's elite rush defense, we should be confident both these teams top 24 points and push this one over the number.