The Colts average a league-worst 13.8 points and will be without their top two running backs. Yes, Trevor Lawrence has had major turnover issues the past two games, but it's Matt Ryan who has fumbled 11 times and thrown seven INTs this season. Ryan is playing behind a weak O-line and the Jags, with their top-10 pressure rate, can harass him like they did in Week 2, a 24-0 win. Take the points.

The Colts couldn’t score a point in Week 2 in Jacksonville without their best receiver (Michael Pittman), and now they’ll face the Jags at home without Jonathan Taylor. Missing a RB isn’t generally too big of a deal, but this is an offense that can barely score at full strength (NFL-worst 13.8 ppg), and now they’ll be facing the Jags without arguably their best player — along with his backup Nyheim Hines, and defensive starters Shaquille Leonard and Kwity Paye. The Colts haven’t lost to the Jags in Indy since 2017, but even so, they’ve only managed to cover the spread against Jacksonville one time since October 2015. This line has dropped, but that’s OK because the Jags always give the Colts a game and they probably won't need to score much to win this one. Grab the point and a half.

Jonathan Taylor to the rescue. The Colts RB, perhaps the most indispensable non-QB on offense league-wide, will presumably return from injury rehab. Indy’s offense can be abysmal without him. The Colts have fared well in their two home gigs, beating the Chiefs and majorly outgaining the Titans in defeat. The spread would be north of 3 if not the Jaguars’ 8-1-1 ATS streak in the series. However, Indy has taken eight of the last 10 meetings outright.

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor returned to practice on Thursday. Doesn't guarantee he will play Sunday but sure seems like it. That's really enough for me -- plus, it's payback time for the Colts after losing 24-0 in Jacksonville in Week 2, a place Indy never wins for some reason. I can't remember when a division series ended by Week 6 like this one will. The Colts also are on extra rest. FiveThirtyEight has Indy 4 points better, but I'm not messing with the spread.

The Colts get an extra few days to prepare for this game, and boy do they need it. They outlasted the Broncos last Thursday more than beat them, and they've addressed none of our concerns about the offense. Now they're up against a team that shut them out not even one month ago, and while the Jaguars appear to have come back down to earth, they were unlucky to score six points last week with over 5.7 yards per play, something that's happened just once since 2014. The only team in that same situation went on to score 86 points in its next three games. Jacksonville can put up points here, but can Indy? I'm not so sure.