It's odd to see a favorite yield a double-digit spread to an underdog whose four games this season have ended with these margins: one, four, four and three. Odd, too, that the Falcons with this generous spot are alone with a 4-0 ATS record this season. Much has been made of QB Tom Brady generating at least 30 points in four meetings with the Falcons, but the current offense is his least scary as a Buc. Atlanta can survive the absence of injured RB Cordarrelle Patterson. Its ground game, bolstered by depth, ranks fourth in the league.

The Bucs are coming off a tough home loss, but it came at the hands of maybe the best team in the league. The Falcons edged out the Browns at home but needed some fortunate luck in the first quarter (turnover on downs near goal line, bad Cleveland fumble) to not fall behind early. They completed just seven passes in the game, and that's not going to cut it against Tom Brady and what's usually an elite rush defense, especially after losing Cordarrelle Patterson. I was surprised this dipped from the lookahead of -8.5 as I think this line should be double-digits. Bucs get back on track in a big way here.