The Saints have had QB Tom Brady’s number since he joined the Bucs, and it’s zero. As in, zero straight-up wins in four regular season encounters. Tampa Bay’s offense did not tear it up at Dallas last Sunday, and it’s likely left OT Donovan Smith and WR Chris Godwin will sit, leaving Brady with less than a full deck. If QB Jameis Winston keeps emotions in check against the team that gave up on him, the Saints can continue covering as a home underdog, as it has 13 of the past 20 times.

Outside of the fact that the New Orleans Saints haven't lost a regular season game to the Bucs with Tom Brady as the QB, this is usually a bad matchup for the Bucs because of how the Saints go about their business. Both teams have some questions entering this game, but for the Bucs it's more or less whether or not they can get an encore performance from Julio Jones, as they will be shorthanded without Chris Godwin this game. So the Saints will have to worry about two WRs instead of three, and one of those wideouts will be covered by Marshon Lattimore. Look for the Saints offense to start the game in the same manner they finished vs Atlanta. That was not an aberration.

The Buccaneers have committed a total of just 36 turnovers the last two years combined, an average of just over one per game. In four games against the Saints, they've turned the ball over 11 times. This defense was a major problem for Tom Brady and Co. at their best, but that was before the interior of their O-line was turned over. Chris Godwin also seems like a longshot to contribute in this game after suffering an injury in Week 1. The Saints offense looked putrid for much of their opener but Jameis Winston finally found his way in the fourth quarter. Without context, maybe this line makes sense, but with recent history between these teams being what it is, I love the Saints.