It's always dicey to take a touchdown favorite in Week 1 given there's no reality from which to base a pick in that given season, but if there was a spot to do it, it's here. Joe Flacco has lost seven straight games as a starting QB, and he lost those games with a better offensive line. The Jets defense is still a work in progress that will take a while to gel. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson is playing his first game starting a contract year with a coach in John Harbaugh who will have his team prepared for this spot. The biggest concern for the Ravens is lack of playmakers around Jackson with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards injured and Marquise Brown off to the Cardinals. However, Mark Andrews should tear apart the middle of the New York defense, Mike Davis is a capable replacement in the backfield and there is enough speed to keep the hosts on their heels.

Laying a big number on the road is always a tricky move in the NFL, especially in Week 1. For Baltimore, this opener is important because of its free-fall to end last season. The Ravens won just one road game after Oct. 3, and they lost six straight to finish the season. Even against an improved Jets team, look for the Ravens to pay attention to detail in all phases and push enough to get past this number. Take Baltimore.

It's worth searching around the key number of 7, which was widely available early this week, or buying the half point for insurance. But hopefully it won't come into play. There's little reason for the Ravens to be this big of a favorite Sunday. Lamar Jackson hasn't seen the field due to his contract impasse, and the backfield remains a banged-up mystery heading into the opener. His top WR left as a free agent and it remains to be seen if anyone other than Mark Andrews emerges as a viable target. The Jets have some decent weapons and could so some damage if Joe Flacco gets time to throw against what was one of the NFL's worst secondary units last year. Take the points.

Well, I may regret this but Caesars just dropped this below 7 and so I'll jump while it's there. I do think Lamar Jackson plays with a chip on his shoulder because he and the team couldn't agree on a contract extension. The Jets of course are starting ancient and immobile Joe Flacco, and they have some major injury issues on the O-Line with Duane Brown ruled out today. Mekhi Becton suffered a season-ending knee injury in early August. The Jets are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 September games. I honestly don't put much stock into that with different coaches, QBs, etc., but I'm just letting you know. I do put stock in the Ravens always starting fast because John Harbaugh gets his team ready by actually caring about winning in the preseason. This is why I'll be waiting until late in weeks to make plays. No interest with this at -7.

As I believe the Ravens will get right to work Sunday against the Jets as will I. To put it bluntly I'm not really sure what New York's plan will be to score points here and the problem facing Baltimore is they become a black hole when they get a double-digit lead on you. Honestly ask yourself this question, how many points do the Ravens need to score here to ensure a cover? 28 might do it, 35 should guarantee it. Are you confident in Joe Flacco leading 4 touchdown drives? He's lost 7 straight as a starter and facing a coach who knows everything about him. Also, the Jets have lost 12 straight games in September and are 1-11 ATS in that span. New York also saw a severe lack of meaningful points/play in the preseason while Baltimore took it incredibly seriously and usually starts the season in successful form because of it. Lamar Jackson torched the Jets for 5 TD's the last time he faced them, he'll do it again, especially now that he's close to securing a $200 million contract.

While everyone is slowly working themselves back into 'game shape' the Ravens tend to open the season in midseason form. What scares me the most in this game is Jets QB Joe Flacco going up against an aggressive Ravens defense that will look to keep the pressure on him all throughout the game. Also, Baltimore has the best player in the game handling the ball every play in QB Lamar Jackson.