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Sun 01/16 | 1:15 AM UTC | Orchard Park
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
New England Patriots 10-7, 10-7 ATS
NE +4.5
NE +180
Over 43
Buffalo Bills 11-6, 9-6 ATS
BUF -4.5
BUF -220
Under 43

Expert Picks

New England 17 @ Buffalo 47 | 01/16 | 1:15 AM UTC

Buffalo -4.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: This line has been inflated a bit (-4 is preferred), but since it has not hit the key number of six, I’m not overly bothered. Forget the storyline of Bill Belichick in a playoff game as an underdog. Instead, concentrate on Mac Jones in a road playoff game as a rookie who has five INTs to three TDs against teams not named the Jaguars since Dec. 18. The Bills have a QB advantage here with Josh Allen, even if he plays worse in cold weather. Buffalo is the hotter and more confident team. As long as it can manage to slow down the run and force Jones to try and make plays, it should be able to get past New England by a touchdown.

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Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
+1394 59-41 IN LAST 100 NFL PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 BUF ATS PICKS
+540 12-6 IN LAST 18 NE ATS PICKS

Season Splits

10-7, 10-7 ATS
11-6, 9-6 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
59%
10-7
9-6-2
60%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
62%
5-3
4-3-2
57%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
60%
3-2
7-5-2
58%
When Spread was +3 to +6
SPREAD
When Spread was -6 to -3
67%
2-1
1-2
33%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
67%
2-1
4-3-2
57%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
71%
5-2
2-3
40%
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
60%
3-2
2-1
67%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
64%
9-5
9-4-1
69%
vs BUF
HEAD TO HEAD
vs NE
50%
1-1
1-1
50%