This line has been inflated a bit (-4 is preferred), but since it has not hit the key number of six, I’m not overly bothered. Forget the storyline of Bill Belichick in a playoff game as an underdog. Instead, concentrate on Mac Jones in a road playoff game as a rookie who has five INTs to three TDs against teams not named the Jaguars since Dec. 18. The Bills have a QB advantage here with Josh Allen, even if he plays worse in cold weather. Buffalo is the hotter and more confident team. As long as it can manage to slow down the run and force Jones to try and make plays, it should be able to get past New England by a touchdown.

New England rookie QB Mac Jones will have to brave the elements once again in Buffalo, as the temperature will be in the single digits with the wind chill at -10. I would expect Bill Belichick to put Jones on a pitch count again and try to lean on his run game. The Bills know that to be the case and will be ready once again to take that away from the Pats.

The NFL stuck these teams in a night slot with temperatures expected in single digits and wind speeds in double digits. When last these teams met in harsh circumstances, Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones threw all of four passes in a 14-10 game. Though Bills counterpart Josh Allen is a veteran of cold-weather games, his stats are below those accumulated in more comfy conditions. Weather aside, when rivals face off for the third time in seven weeks, the edge goes to the defenses.

There's just something about getting to bet on a Bill Belichick team as an underdog in a playoff game that's difficult to pass up. Particularly when it's against a team he's already faced twice during the regular season. New England will do everything it can to limit big plays on offense from Buffalo, which should keep them within striking distance.

I really don't like how the Patriots ended the season, losing three of their last four games, including a 33-24 loss at Miami last week. Their only win over that time came against Jacksonville, the worst team in the league. The Bills also beat New England, 33-21, just three weeks ago. I think that matchup between the teams is a better gauge than the first matchup, which the Patriots won but was played in crazy windy conditions. Buffalo has ended the season on a roll, winning four straight games by an average of 15.0 points. I'm on the Bills.

When these teams met in Buffalo in Week 13, wintry weather was a MAJOR factor. It's not going to be quite that bad on Saturday but it's going to be brutally cold with some wind and maybe a bit of snow, so I'm taking the Under now. Much like my pick on Raiders-Bengals, I expect this number to drop over the week.