ANALYSIS: This line has been inflated a bit (-4 is preferred), but since it has not hit the key number of six, I’m not overly bothered. Forget the storyline of Bill Belichick in a playoff game as an underdog. Instead, concentrate on Mac Jones in a road playoff game as a rookie who has five INTs to three TDs against teams not named the Jaguars since Dec. 18. The Bills have a QB advantage here with Josh Allen, even if he plays worse in cold weather. Buffalo is the hotter and more confident team. As long as it can manage to slow down the run and force Jones to try and make plays, it should be able to get past New England by a touchdown.