The Dolphins have won six straight (5-1 ATS), but the lineup they’ve defeated isn’t exactly murderers row: the Jets twice, Texans, Giants and Panthers. The 6.5-point swing on the QB change (Taysom Hill to Ian Book for New Orleans) is an overreach because a Saints quarterback's value is relative to whether or not Alvin Kamara is playing. He’s playing, so I’ll take the points with Book dinking and dunking down the field and New Orleans playing great defense at home. Saints cover.

Miami's dogged, blitz-happy defense might get a belated Christmas gift if rookie Ian Book starts for the Saints as expected. The QB has yet to play a down, but New Orleans could have no choice with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The Dolphins have fattened up against a soft schedule. Still, the slightest of favoritism for a defensively take-no-prisoners team going against the greenest of QBs seems out of whack.

The temptation is to back the host Saints as short favorites. After all, they just shut out Tom Brady. But this line is trending toward 2.5 at the sharpest books as the Saints deal with an emerging COVID outbreak. Miami expects to have Jaylen Waddle back from the COVID list, giving Tua Tagovailoa an elite target to go along with Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker. Both teams are strong defensively and limited offensively. I like the Dolphins -- who have won six straight -- to take this to the wire if not win outright.