With trust in the Cardinals low and belief in the Colts high, this is a great spot to go against expectation and ride with Arizona. The late news that Darius Leonard and Zach Pascal are on the COVID-19 list provides the Cards with even more of an advantage in this spot given Indianapolis was already down three starting offensive linemen. This may hit a full field goal before kickoff. Look for a bounce back from Kyler Murray and Arizona to end its disastrous two-game losing streak.

All the momentum is with the Colts here after they ran the Patriots defense into the ground, and they're now 8-1-2 SU in regulation in their last 11 games after their early season issues. The Colts win coupled with the Arizona loss to Detroit was enough to initially swing this game three points from the lookahead line, which is a scenario I'm always interested in playing against. I still think there's value with the Cardinals here, especially with the Colts line missing the interior of their offensive line. Pressure Carson Wentz up the middle and good things will happen. Expect Kyler Murray to have a good passing day against this D and lead Arizona to a win.

The Colts won't have three starting offensive linemen Sunday: Quentin Nelson, Ryan Kelly and Mark Glowinski. That could make Jonathan Taylor a little less effective, and Carson Wentz a bit more skittish versus the blitz-happy Cardinals (4th-highest rate). Arizona is at the bottom of its market value, while Indy is at its zenith. Look for a bounceback performance from Kyler Murray against the Colts' subpar pass defense, and lay the small number.

The Colts are built to run the ball behind a stout offensive line, but that line could be down at least two starters -- center Ryan Kelly (bereavement) and right guard Mark Glowinski (COVID-19) -- for this primetime matchup on Christmas. Without those two, I think Indianapolis struggles to move the ball against the Cardinals. Arizona squeaks this one out.

While Kyler Murray was sharp in his return from injury against the Bears, he's been bad the last two weeks, and it's clear he's not 100%. This week he's going against a tough and physical Indianapolis defense that has caused problems for many opponents and a team that's steamrolling opponents behind Jonathan Taylor. The Colts have been undervalued on the market all season long, but while the public is finally starting to catch on, this still strikes me as a situation where the wrong team is favored.