Late contrarian play from me here, but I cannot figure out what the Raiders bring to the table to make me believe they will cover in this spot. The Chiefs defense has stepped up massively, while the offense is on its way to getting back on track. Las Vegas is without its best player, and we have seen it struggle to move the ball with Darren Waller out. Double-digit spreads (this is basically one) are not my forte, but when you have one team that's completely healthy and rebounding over the final third of the season and another that seems completely stuck in the mud, that helps push me in one direction.

It’s expected to be 50 degrees with 17-mph winds at Arrowhead by kickoff. The Raiders have lost four of their last five, with the win coming at Dallas on Thanksgiving. One of the losses was a 41-14 setback to the Chiefs in Las Vegas. KC has won five straight, covering the last three, and the under has hit in six of the past seven. The Raiders won in Kansas City last season. Revenge and desperation are in play for Las Vegas on Sunday. I took the double digits with the Raiders.

Bookmakers continue to make the Chiefs enormous favorites even though they continue to fail to cover. They're just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 regular season games. Vegas beat Kansas City by eight the last time the teams played at Arrowhead. The Raiders need this game more and keep it close.

The Chiefs defense continues to be outstanding, holding three of their last four opponents to under 10 points. But the final score of last week's Denver game was misleading thanks to a muffed punt and long pick-six on a tipped pass. If that final was something like 13-10, would this line still be this huge? The Raiders were the only team that has made the Chiefs offense look good in recent weeks, but they gave up less than 300 yards to Cincy and Washington in the games before and after that rout. I'm going to keep fading the Chiefs to win by big margins until I'm more confident in their offense.