This basically falls under the "I'll just about always take a home team getting more than 10 points" theory. Atlanta played the Bucs pretty evenly for three quarters in Tampa in Week 2. This may need to be a backdoor cover but it still counts. Hey, we won on another dog on that field Saturday.

I don't try to make a habit of taking double-digit favorites in the NFL, but this line is short. Tampa crushed Atlanta earlier this season, and while the Falcons are a respectable 5-6, their wins haven't been very impressive. Meanwhile, Tampa has been strong offensively in the last few weeks, and finds itself in a spot where it can't afford to give away games if it wants to earn that first-round bye. Look for the Bucs to take care of business early.

These two teams have played three games since Tom Brady came to Tampa, with the Bucs averaging 41 points per game in those matchups. The Falcons have managed to put up points in those contests as well, scoring at least 25 points in each of their last four against Tampa Bay. While the Falcons offense hasn't looked great in recent weeks with teams not having to take their stable of offensive weapons seriously, they don't have to score a ton to get this one Over if the Bucs are throwing up 40. Look to play the Bucs team total Over 30.5 (or 31.5 at plus odds), as I like that play better overall, but history says the main total gets Over as well.