One of my cardinal rules is not to wager on bad football teams, but when comparing the Falcons and Jaguars, there's bad and then there's worse. Atlanta is in a value spot here coming off two terrible offensive performances, but it's getting Cordarrelle Patterson back, which should open up things in both the running and passing game. The Falcons being bludgeoned by two great teams doesn't bother me given the competition level is different, and Atlanta will surely be primed for a bounce-back. Plus, Jacksonville hardly has home field advantage here, let alone when a nearby team plays. There's simply more talent and experience on the other side of the field.

Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) should be back, giving Atlanta's offense a much-needed boost. He's posted four games with 100-plus yards from scrimmage. For the Jaguars, wideout/returner Jamal Agnew went on injured reserve, while top corner Shaquill Griffin is in the concussion protocol. We're getting good value on an Atlanta team that just faced two of the NFL's top teams in Dallas and New England.

No team has looked worse than the Falcons the last two weeks, as Atlanta has been outscored 68-3 during that stretch. But that came against two of the best teams in the league, and the Falcons have looked like a solid team at times this year, particularly against other bad teams. And that's definitely what Jacksonville is. The Jaguars' run defense had been improving before getting gashed by the 49ers, but Atlanta doesn't run the ball anyway. I like taking Matt Ryan in a matchup versus the struggling Trevor Lawrence and not even having to lay points to do it, and Jacksonville is one of the few defenses where I'm not sure they can slow down Atlanta's offensive attack. Falcons are the better team here.