The Jets find themselves in a tough predicament against the Dolphins, with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback. Over his last 14 NFL starts, Flacco’s teams are just 2-12 overall. Additionally, he lost every start with New York last season, including a 24-0 setback versus the Dolphins. Take Miami to post its third straight victory.

In Joe Flacco, Miami could not have hand-picked a more ideal QB to face. The Dolphins’ defense is blitz-crazy at times, and Flacco is not exactly Lamar Jackson. Do not bank on the Jets’ defense to bail out the offense. It has been battered for at least 45 points in three of the last four games. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is back in the lineup after coming off the bench in last week's win over Baltimore. The Dolphins got three extra days to prepare, not that they will need them.

I thought last week's win was more important for Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa than anyone else on the team. He made the plays that were there to be made and wasn't a liability on offense. And with the way Miami's defense frustrated Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, I would expect it to make light work of whoever starts for the Jets.

Saying there's a good chance this game is ugly is an understatement. The New York Jets have given up 175 points and 1,890 yards over its last four games. That's not a typo. That said it was against Buffalo, Indy, Cincinnati and New England. Expect that number to trend back to (somewhat) normal, not to mention Miami is only averaging 16.6 PPG offensively over its last three. Lastly, the Dolphins' defense is only allowing 9.5 PPG over its last two. Field goals, stalled drives and two teams looking to run the ball and avoid disaster will be our friend here.

This line looks ready to hop off the key number of three, and I'll lay the -120 before that happens. The Dolphins are coming off an upset win over the Ravens, and they'll certainly benefit from the mini-bye after playing on Thursday considering they don't get their real bye for a few more weeks. The Dolphins defense has rounded into form the last few weeks after injuries hampered the secondary especially early in the year. The Jets defense is a trainwreck, giving up 45-plus points in three of the team's last four games, and the Mike White Experience turned out to be fool's gold. This line would make sense a few weeks ago, but not with where Miami is now as a team.