An assortment of injuries has been unable to sideline Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. But COVID-19 has, and Pittsburgh’s already struggling offense (ranked 20th) will suffer in his absence. Backup Mason Rudolph has yet to unfurl a pass this season. Without Big Ben, the Steelers are uneasy favorites, having gone eight straight without a cover. They are turning around from a Monday nighter in which they posted a last-minute win over Chicago despite being badly outgained, whereas winless Detroit returns from a welcome bye week.

Typically I hate laying big points with the Steelers -- they've failed to cover eight straight as favorites. But this line has come down to the point where it's the right play. Even with left tackle Taylor Decker back for Detroit, the Lions and Jared Goff should struggle miserably in the cold, rainy weather expected. Pittsburgh is third in pressure rate. With rookie head coaches having gone 2-12 ATS off a bye the past three seasons, I'm not expecting Detroit to suddenly look competent. Look for T.J. Watt and company to force several key mistakes as the Steelers win their fifth straight -- and cover.

Do I think the Lions are anywhere close to being even an average team? I do not. But the Steelers are an average team with a limited offense, and without plenty of help from the officials on Monday, they'd be coming off a loss to a Bears squad that has floundered of late. I don't trust them laying nine points against anyone with how the offense has looked this year. There's value backing a winless team off a bye when they'll be focused on finally getting in the win column, and they're playing a Steelers team on short rest with a critical part of its schedule coming up. This should be a low-scoring, close game similar to ones the Lions lost earlier in the year.

While 9 seems like a rather large point spread in an NFL game, we've seen bad teams struggle to cover those numbers. In this matchup, it's simply tied to Jared Goff beating the blitz of Pittsburgh and whether or not he can do it. The Steelers' offense doesn't operate as smoothly as you would like, but with the multiple opportunities it will get with the football in this game eventually Ben Roethlisberger & Co. will find their way.