Earlier in the week I was leaning toward the rested Ravens but after digging deeper I'm backing the team coming off an embarrassing performance in the Sunday night spotlight. Baltimore gives up a ton of big plays, owing to its blitz-heavy scheme with inconsistent tackling. With Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, Minnesota is perfectly suited to exploit that weakness. Look for both teams to succeed offensively and for the Vikings to improve to 10-5 ATS when getting more than a field goal with Kirk Cousins.

Nothing here appears to setup well for Minnesota, which is far worse defensively when on the road (+12 ppg) going up against a well-rested and heavily motivated Baltimore team also coming off a loss. The Ravens are 9-4 ATS off the bye under John Harbaugh and likely spent much of that time attempting to improve a defense that has largely been a disappointment this season. The lone stat that gives me pause here is the Vikings' ability to play every game close. Only one of their losses has come by a touchdown, while the Ravens have only won two games by more than 6 points. Still, given the circumstances, I'm backing Baltimore before the hook comes into play.

Yes, we just watched Kirk Cousins get outplayed by Cooper Rush while leading the Vikings to a whopping 16 points, but that was prime time Cousins. This is 1 p.m. Cousins, and I expect a talented Minnesota offense to bounce back against a Baltimore defense that ranks in the bottom 10 by DVOA. On the other side, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens should score plenty themselves coming off a bye and a painful loss, and with no Danielle Hunter to contend with. The Over is the play.

The Vikings have an offense with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook and one of the highest-paid QBs in the league and just went out and got embarrassed by Cooper Rush. Now they have to regroup and face a well-rested Baltimore team that's had two weeks to stew on its own somewhat embarrassing showing against the Bengals. Baltimore typically plays well coming out of the bye, even if the scoreboard doesn't always reflect it, and with Danielle Hunter lost for the year, the Vikings pass rush should be less effective in what could have been a nice chance to exploit the absence of Ronnie Stanley. I think Lamar Jackson and Co. put up a bunch of points, and I don't see Minnesota keeping up.

A few of my fellow experts don't think coming off a bye matters. I still do, at least if it's with the right coach .. an Andy Reid or Bill Belichick or Nick Saban or, yeah, John Harbaugh. The Ravens are 9-4 ATS out of a bye under Harbaugh and should get a few key injured guys back. Minnesota had its guts ripped out against a short-handed Cowboys team in Week 8, so I expect a flat effort. The Vikes also lost top pass-rusher Danielle Hunter for the season.

Baltimore is coming off a bye week and had to stew over its loss to Cincinnati for two weeks. What makes the Ravens a dangerous team is the fact they are getting healthier on both sides of the ball. The Vikings just don't have the right quarterback in order to beat pressure, which they'll face throughout the game.

The Ravens were on a nice 3-game run until they faced off against the buzzsaw Bengals. Luckily Baltimore had a bye week after that to regroup and I believe they will. Look, that loss to Cincy wasn't pretty but it shouldn't have been that bad. The Ravens' secondary gave up two monster TD's off poor tackles that should have been sub-20 yard stops. I don't trust anything with Minnesota's play-calling as of late because quite frankly they aren't sure what their offensive identity actually is. Would feel more comfortable with Baltimore at 5 instead of 5.5 but let's roll the dice.