They like to say the NFL is a quarterback league. Well, when Tom Brady vs. Jameis Winston presents itself without significantly mitigating factors, more often than not, that's an easy call. There appears to still be hangover belief in the Saints from their Week 1 win over the Packers. Since then, the teams they've beaten are a combined 7-14. The Bucs are without Antonio Brown but get Rob Gronkowski back. I have no doubt that New Orleans' defense will slow Brady & Co. The question is whether its offense can score enough. If Tampa Bay can find success limiting Alvin Kamara, I could see it cruising to a road win knowing it can go all out entering the bye week. Don't think the Bucs forgot about what the Saints did to them last season.

Saints QB Jameis Winston, though capable, is prone to turnovers — and nobody knows that better than his former team. New Orleans would prefer to run the ball in order to protect Winston from error-prone plays. Good luck with that. The Buccaneers are yielding 3.7 yards per carry, third-fewest in the league. It’s a short week for the Saints, who traveled a long way for Monday Night Football in Seattle. Only the championship-contending Los Angeles Rams have defeated Tampa Bay this season, so it’s a stretch to envision New Orleans doing so.

Tampa Bay's only loss this season came against the Rams. The Saints are not the Rams. New Orleans' two-game winning streak has come against two bad teams -- Washington and Seattle. The Buccaneers' six wins have been by an average of 16.0 points. Tampa Bay covers.

Wish I had jumped on this earlier, but I'm good with the dog here as long as we're getting more than the key number of 4. A few books have fallen to 4 already. Tom Brady is lighting up the scoreboard but he hasn't faced a defense like the one he'll see Sunday in New Orleans. With Marcus Davenport and Kwon Alexander back, the Saints are elite at all three levels. New Orleans, which has covered 11 of its last 13 as an underdog, made the Bucs' offense look disjointed in last year's matchups. Antonio Brown remains out. Back New Orleans to at least keep this close.

The market has put Tampa Bay at peak value coming off another easy win, but the injuries sustained by this team could catch up to them in the right performance. The Saints came out of their bye week much healthier, though the offense didn't exactly light up Seattle in a tough spot on the road with bad weather. The Saints defense was a tough nut to crack for the Bucs last year, averaging less than 300 yards per game in three matchups. The Bucs have rolled against bad teams but barely beat the Cowboys and Patriots, while losing to the Rams, and I think the Saints are closer to that group than the pushovers Tampa Bay has beat. Saints have a chance at the upset.