The Chiefs appear to be at a discount here given perception of their defensive struggles coupled with the Titans’ huge win over the Bills last week. That was a get-better game, not a get-right game. Kansas City is still not getting enough credit for the beastly schedule its faced. Tennessee enters this game hobbled, and its defense is going to get worked by Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill (active) and company. This line nearly reached -5 before ticking back down, and I’m hopping on it. The Chiefs started a back-breaking 0-3 ATS to start the season, but they are 2-1 ATS since and surging.

The Chiefs, who have a hard time tackling or just playing decent defense, come into this game meek at 3-3 straight up and 2-4 ATS. Yet they're favored at Tennessee, who has shown all its guts in victory this season. The Titans are 4-2 SU and ATS with the best RB in the league, who is hard to tackle. They’re going to line up A.J. Brown in the slot and feed him easily all day. Titans to cover.

This is a good price on the Chiefs, who should shred a banged-up and porous Titans defense that was on the field for 72 plays Monday night. In their games against good offenses, the Titans have yielded 38 points to Arizona, 30 to Seattle and 31 to the Bills. Don't be surprised if the Chiefs approach 40. Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan is out; his replacement Kendall Lamm is a major downgrade. Kansas City is expected to get back defensive lineman Chris Jones (wrist) and cornerback Charvarius Ward. Lay the points.