Yes, I wish I had picked this earlier in the week when the price was -7, but it won't matter. The Cardinals were one of the most impressive teams in Week 1, winning at Tennessee. On the same day, Jacksonville was blown out by Houston. Arizona is averaging 36.0 points a game while Jacksonville is giving up 30.0. My model says the Jaguars cover more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

While I think the Jaguars might actually surprise a team or two this season (they can't be this bad), I can't turn down the 7 points now that it has fallen temporarily from 7.5. In the Jags' 17-game skid, they have allowed at least 23 points in each and might be without top cornerback CJ Henderson in this one. Kyler Murray could double that point total. At worst, this should be an Arizona push and it's not getting to 6.5.

This line has come back down from 7.5 at Caesars so I'll take it without the hook as it could just as easily go back up. My model has this one at 8.5, a meaningful edge on 7, and with how sharp Kyler Murray has looked I tend to think it could end up being a bit closer to 10. I see the Cardinals again getting to 30-plus points, as they've done against both the Titans and Vikings, and the Jaguars struggling to surpass 20. Lay the points.

Last weekend's game aside, the Arizona Cardinals have been much improved defensively. I'm willing to call last week an anomaly instead of a trend to come. Offensively, they put so much strain on an opponent's secondary and second-level defense because of their WR personnel and QB Kyler Murray's ability to create with his legs. I don't feel the Jaguars have enough depth defensively to keep this a one-score game.

The Jaguars mustered 189 yards Sunday, doing nothing after their first drive. If not for a special teams touchdown and the refs calling 10 penalties on Denver, Jacksonville would have been blown out. Now the Jags host a 2-0 Cardinals team that's averaging 36 points per game. Jacksonville's defense already has had to play 78 minutes due to the offense's inability to sustain drives. Jaguars corner C.J. Henderson, the No. 9 overall pick in last year's draft, left the 23-13 loss with a hip injury. His replacement, Chris Claybrooks, got burned on a 55-yard bomb. There are already some 7.5s in the market, so I'm laying this now.