I get why the Lions are such big underdogs, especially with their best offensive lineman out. However, I can't not take this many points at home in Week 1. Why? In the past five seasons, opening-week favorites of at least 8 are 1-8 ATS. Over the past 10: 5-14 ATS. Motor City Kitties with a backdoor cover. Note that a few sites have it at 9.5 and I'd like to potentially wait for that but we have a picks deadline.

This line probably hasn't hit its ceiling. Kyle Shanahan has had months to devise a gameplan against Dan Campbell's Lions. And now Detroit left tackle Taylor Decker is dealing with a finger injury that caused him to miss Thursday's practice. That spells trouble against Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Dee Ford. The Lions already are starting a rookie at right tackle. Detroit's defense, which gave up 32.4 points per game last season, should be a little better but is extremely young and will get burned by big plays. Lay the points.

The 49ers made the Super Bowl two seasons ago but struggled last season with injuries and missed the playoffs. They're healthy again, and I think they will get back to their winning ways. I expect the San Francisco defense to give new Lions quarterback Jared Goff fits just like it did when he was with the Rams in the NFC West. 49ers big.

The Lions have a very good offensive line and will be able to put some points on the board against a team that's learning a new defense. The 49ers also have a new offensive coordinator. I don't think having QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance splitting reps helps either. This line is super-inflated. Home teams getting at least seven points in Week 1 have been very profitable. Take the underdog Lions.