I've been holding out all week hoping to get the Bills at +3.5, and you should too (or buy it up now). Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, with the lights-out Indy offense the only thing keeping them from making it 10 straight. The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine and simply haven't been playing to their ceiling over the second half of the year. The Chiefs have scored fewer points than the rest of the field remaining (also a good prop to hit for Sunday's action at +340), and while their upside is as high as ever, injuries on offense, including a Patrick Mahomes who may be less than 100%, give the Bills the chance to win outright.

Just how healthy is Patrick Mahomes? That's the big question here, and Buffalo is playing as well as any team can at this time of year. The Bills are No. 1 in weighted DVOA. Kansas City is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games. Buffalo wants revenge for its loss to the Chiefs during the regular season.

This line is right on the money at -3, which means there's no value in either direction unless you believe the Bills to be a superior team to the Chiefs, which I do not. When Patrick Mahomes is cleared, which I have little doubt will be the case, the Chiefs will be at -3.5 or -4, which is a difficult call given this matchup. However, at a field goal, I lean with Andy Reid and a Chiefs team that, admittedly, has burned me all year ATS. However, Kansas City is 3-1 ATS as a favorite of six points or less in 2020, and it deserves some credit as the home team and defending Super Bowl champions. This is more of a gut play than anything, but at a FG or less, I'm on the Chiefs.

I really don't like picking both favorites Sunday -- and I absolutely will not be betting them at -3 but buying down to -2.5 -- but home teams have dominated on conference championship Sunday for years. Over the last seven seasons, home teams are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in these games. Getting Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Sammy Watkins (presumably) back will only help Patrick Mahomes -- his head isn't the worry, it's his left big toe. Buffalo is playing great, but I believe the Bills lose last week if not for that Lamar Jackson 101-yard pick-six late in the third quarter. Josh Allen winning a road playoff game is a different animal.

I would grab this line before it goes up, which it surely will once Patrick Mahomes' status becomes clearer. He's taking all the right steps to clear concussion protocol and playing on Sunday; he was on the practice field again on Thursday. I also think the Chiefs will be able to run the ball effectively against a Bills defense that allowed 4.6 yards per carry during the regular season; just six teams gave up more. A lot is being made about Kansas City's inability to cover in its last nine games. (The team is 1-8 or 0-9 depending on what line you use.) But the Chiefs were favored by seven or more in seven of those nine games. I like them covering this small number.

If not for a Hail Mary, Buffalo would enter the AFC title showdown on a 12-game win streak. Patrick Mahomes likely will play, but he's dealing with a foot injury that could impact his mobility. The Bills' explosive passing attack didn't click last Sunday due to windy conditions. That won't be the case this Sunday in Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 32nd in red-zone defense -- opponents score touchdowns on 76.6 percent of their trips inside the 20 -- and Josh Allen's running should help Buffalo cash in at a similar clip. He has eight of the Bills' 16 rushing TDs. Take the points