Alvin Kamara is back, but there's no guarantee he'll be his usual self right away after testing positive for COVID-19. The Bears' offense was rolling until last week, and even then they still outgained the Packers, had four more first downs and dominated time of possession. They can score enough to stay within this massive number. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a playoff favorite, including 0-4 ATS at home.

This is a humongous spread for a Saints team that hasn't looked at its peak over the final stretch of the season, and better versions of this team has had trouble winning by large margins in the playoffs. In fact, not only have the Saints failed to cover in all three playoff games over the last two years, but they haven't won a single playoff matchup by more than six points since the 2011 season. Their defense has been shaky in recent weeks, so as long as Mitchell Trubisky can avoid a pickfest like we saw in last week's Carolina game, I like the Bears to keep it within the number or possibly backdoor a cover late.

The resurrection of QB Mitch Trubisky has kickstarted the Bears offense. In six games since he was restored to the lineup, half have wound up in the 60s and two more have finished above this figure. All five reached Over. The Saints topped the total in six of eight home games. Running back Alvin Kamara is back after a one-game absence. His previous two outings produced games of 61 and 85 points. Receiver Michael Thomas, limited to seven games this year, also returns. There is no better RB/WR tandem. Chicago’s secondary continues without its normal starting corners, and linebacker Roquan Smith has been ruled out.

This will be a one-sided game. I like the Saints because of their defense, which is as good as any in the league. The defense will shut down the Bears, who aren't any good and are lucky to be here. Much was made about their late-season surge, but those wins came against three awful teams: Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. When Chicago played a playoff-caliber team, the Packers, in Week 17 the Bears got whipped by 19. I'm taking New Orleans.