This is one of those gut-check picks for me as I have been burned both by the Buccaneers and backdoor covers all season. And yet, here we go again in Week 17. Tampa Bay has said it will come out and said it will play its full complement of players in hopes of clinching the No. 5 seed. Atlanta, despite holding Kansas City down last week and covering two straight games, should not be able to keep up with a playoff-motivated team. The Bucs have covered consecutive games at home and should be able to pull away big here. The question is whether they will hold on late. I'm thinking they will.

The Bucs defense was stripped of integral players Friday when linebackers Devin White and Shaq Barrett and lineman Steve McLendon were transferred to the reserve/COVID-19 list. White ranks third in the league in tackles, and he and Barrett have combined for 17 sacks. That puts a heavier burden on Tom Brady and the offense, and TB12 is accustomed to responding with big outputs. Atlanta has adjusted to the constant absence of receiver Julio Jones, who has been ruled out yet again, as Calvin Ridley has stepped up to a starring role. The series seems to be stuck on Overs: five in a row and eight of the last nine.

The Bucs are expected to go all-out in this game, and aside from one half against the Falcons a few weeks back, they've looked awesome since their late-season bye. This is a letdown spot for the Falcons after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against the No. 1 team in the NFL last week, with an offseason of turnover ahead. The Atlanta offense in general has been sluggish to close out the season -- again, with a half against the Bucs the exception. While I worry about a backdoor cover late if the Bucs decide to rest key defensive players, I think they'll build enough of a lead to get us a cover here.

The Over has cashed in five straight meetings, and the most recent Falcons-Buccaneers matchup generated 58 points. That's why we're getting good value to go Under. Julio Jones isn't likely to return, hampering Atlanta's offense. The Buccaneers will play to win but not to run up the score, if that opportunity even presents itself. Go Under.

Bucs coach Bruce Arians says he will play his starters and to win, and I tend to believe him. Tampa is guaranteed the No. 5 seed with a victory and that's huge because it would mean visiting an NFC East champion that has a losing record on Wild-Card Weekend. The one worry is that the Bucs get up big and Arians pulls his guys in the second half, but at under 7 points we will take the risk. The Falcons look to be without Julio Jones and a few other injured starters and have zero motivation.

The Buccaneers have given up 27 passing touchdowns this season, which is the 11th most in the league. Meanwhile the Falcons defense has improved since coach Dan Quinn was fired after Week 5, giving up just 20.9 points over the last 10 games versus 32.2 over the first five. I think Atlanta keeps this game close against a Tampa Bay team that has bigger goals ahead.