Now that Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is trending toward returning from injury, we think Big Blue can hang within 10 at worst -- that hook (half-point for those who don't now) could be huge. Plus, Baltimore could be without top wideout Marquise Brown and cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith. It's also the Ravens' fifth game in 23 days, so that figures to catch up to them at some point. The Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.

Oft-injured QB David Jones appears to be a go, which puts the Giants in play for a cover. They still cling to hope of winning the watered-down NFC East, so there is rare motivation for a 5-9 team. Play-caller Jason Garrett, the offensive coordinator, is due back after missing a week. The Ravens have shed the shackles on offense and are rolling after a prolonged recession, yet their strength -- the ground game -- could be compromised. The Giants’ rush defense ranks seventh, allowing 3.9 yards per carry.

Unders are 11-3 in Giants games this year, and it's unlikely they'll suddenly have a spike in offensive production in this matchup after scoring just 49 points in four games since the bye, especially since the Ravens defense ranks fifth in points allowed per drive. The Giants have been great against the run (sixth in yards per rush) and great in the red zone (fourth in success rate), and they're getting James Bradberry back from the COVID-19 list for this game. This should be similar to the Giants' last two games where the opposition has things well in hand throughout and the total never sniffs the Over.

Lamar Jackson accounted for 278 yards and three touchdowns last week, and I don't think the Giants have an answer for him. Baltimore can name the score in this one. They need the game, and their defense will show up. Lay the points.