The Raiders were flat last week at Atlanta, losing 43-6. Derek Carr is having a very nice year with 19 TD passes and just four interceptions. The Jets' pass defense is 30th in the NFL, allowing 285 yards per game. New York's offense ranks dead last in yards per play and has scored 10 points or less in five of the last seven games. If the Jets were going to get up for a game, it would've been last week against coach Adam Gase's former team. Tease the Raiders and you can lay up to -9.5 with value.

The wind chill at kickoff will be 29 degrees, not Derek Carr's favorite weather, and 13-mph winds won't help the offenses either. The Jets aren't suddenly going to click with Sam Darnold running things. Las Vegas will be without Josh Jacobs (ankle). Go Under.

Hammered by Atlanta last Sunday, the Raiders must jet back to the eastern time zone for another early kickoff, and some seats on the plane could be empty. Three injured starters have been scratched, most significantly RB Josh Jacobs. QB Derek Carr will be aboard but headed for a cold-weather game, the sort he does not care for. On starts with the temperature below 50, he is 3-11 straight-up. The temperature is expected to hover around 40 degrees. The medium-to-high winds could hamper Carr more than the Jets’ Sam Darnold, who is ineffective in any conditions.

Sam Darnold returned to the lineup last week and looked as ineffective as he did prior to his injury. The Raiders are trying to hold on for dear life to their playoff spot and will be looking to seek revenge on a Jets team that beat them 34-3 at MetLife Stadium last season.

I truly believe the Jets may win this game, so I'll gladly take the points. Last season, Cincinnati started 0-11 before defeating the Jets in the Bengals' 12th game. Just saying. Also, did you see how bad the Raiders looked in an East Coast early start time last week in Atlanta? Vegas probably will be without top running back Josh Jacobs, while the Jets are pretty healthy. Last season around this time, the Jets blasted the visiting Raiders 34-3. Is there really a 40-point difference this time? I don't think so.

Last week, I took the Falcons and the points at home against the Raiders. My reasoning was simple. The Falcons weren't as bad as their record suggested, and after the Raiders nearly beat the Chiefs for a second time this season, they were being overvalued. I did not see a 43-6 destruction coming. Nothing went right for the Raiders in Atlanta, which is excellent news for us because it allows us to capitalize on an overcorrection. The Falcons were better than their record. The Jets aren't. They might have looked semi-competent against the Chargers and Patriots, but they're still a team that has lost 11 games by an average of 15.4 points per game.