The Titans have seen their fair share of struggles this season, but this is a team we know can beat good opponents -- and not just the Ravens and Colts in the last two weeks. The Browns, on the other hand, haven't beaten a team of quality since Oct. 11 and are 1-2 ATS as an underdog this year with a cover over the hapless Cowboys. Cleveland has also faced the second-easiest schedule in the NFL to date with seven of its eight wins coming against teams with losing records. All three of its straight up losses have come to winning teams by double digits. For me, the differentiator in this game is Ryan Tannehill and the Titans' passing offense. The line is back to the point where I'm comfortable backing Tennessee to win by a touchdown.

For the third time in four years, Cleveland and Tennessee are meeting in the regular season. In the prior two matchups, the Titans limited the Browns to nine and 13 points, respectively. This included intercepting Baker Mayfield three times last year and returning one for a touchdown. Grab the Titans.

Tennessee's Derrick Henry has gotten on his patented late-season roll. Meanwhile Cleveland is 8-3 but has been outscored by 21 points this season; the Browns beat bad teams by a little, and lose to good teams by a lot. The Titans are a good team. My model says Tennessee covers almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

The Titans are overvalued after beating an Indy team that was shorthanded on defense, and this is a prime letdown spot for them. I don't think the Tennessee defense is anywhere near good enough to shut the Browns down, ranking 28th in DVOA, 30th in red zone success rate and 32nd on third down. The Browns defense looked bad last week, but Myles Garrett is coming back, and that's a huge lift against a Titans offense missing Taylor Lewan. The Titans also listed a pair of key players questionable in Jeffery Simmons and Rodger Saffold. This spread should be around three, so I think we're getting plenty of value here.

Until last week, the Titans hadn't blown out anyone. Tennessee has six wins by six or fewer points, one win by seven points, and the 45-26 win at Indy in Week 12. Cleveland is getting Myles Garrett back. Grab the points.

The Browns are 8-3. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are an outstanding tandem in the backfield, and Baker Mayfield to Jarvis Landry is a good combo. Derrick Henry was sensational for Tennessee last week but the Titans lost a couple key defenders who were good against the run. That will help Cleveland cover.